10 June 2017

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-05 More++

I summarized my previous post, Bitcoin in the News : 2017-05 Price, in a single sentence:-
Last month's post about April was crazy, but this month's post is even crazier.

I could also have summarized the month with a couple of keyword nouns: high, $2000; or keyword verbs: soar, spike, surge. After that, the most prevalent keyword was something completely different: ransom, as in:-

After the ransomware began infecting users on Friday, they were given 72 hours to pay $300 in bitcoin -- chosen by the hackers because the crypto currency is harder to track than conventional payments -- or pay twice as much. If they refused to pay after seven days, their computer would be permanently locked -- a serious problem for those who haven’t backed up their data.

As of early Monday, only about $50,000 had been paid in ransoms, according to Elliptic Enterprises Ltd., a London-based company that tracks illicit use of bitcoin. The company calculated the total based on payments tracked to bitcoin addresses specified in the ransom demands, adding that it expects the total to rise.

More details emerged in the following days.

The WannaCry infection was preceded by another wannabe-rich-quick criminal scheme:-

  • 2017-05-07: Bitcoin Ransomware Education – AutoDecrypt (themerkle.com) • 'The number of different types of bitcoin ransomware continues to grow at an alarming rate. Earlier this week, security experts have come across a new strain that goes by the name of AutoDecrypt. Contrary to what people may believe by looking at the name, this malware will not automatically decrypt itself unless a payment is made.'

Unfortunately, this wasn't the last time we'll be confronted by this problem, partly because of another recurring keyword that appeared in different contexts: mainstream.

  • 2017-05-22: Bitcoin Is Going Mainstream, but Its Current Run-Up Has a Speculative Feel (thestreet.com) • 'Bitcoin has largely failed as a mode of payment for consumer transactions, with many of the retailers that embraced it a few years ago having backtracked and the rest (from all signs) mostly seeing limited bitcoin transaction volumes. What the predictions of bitcoin's death didn't foresee, however, was the degree to which it would be embraced as an alternative to precious metals as a safe haven for those worried about things like inflation, political instability and (in certain countries) the security of assets held in traditional currencies.'
  • 2017-05-24: Bitcoin is up over 400% in the past year—what’s stopping it from going mainstream? (marketwatch.com) • Abigail Johnson [CEO of Fidelity Investments] says bitcoin is grappling with technological and regulatory issues, as well as what to use it for in the first place.
  • 2017-05-27: From Bitcoin to Big Business, Blockchain Technology Goes Mainstream (voanews.com) • 'The technology behind bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is being looked at by more conventional companies and businesses'

Soar, spike, surge; ransom; mainstream. These keywords are all linked by more than bitcoin.

03 June 2017

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-05 Price

At the beginning of the year I used the first post to document the previous month's price action and continued the idea in the following months, each month more amazing than the previous month. Last month's post about April -- Bitcoin in the News : 2017-04 Price -- was crazy, but this month's post is even crazier. The chart for May is shown below.


Bitcoin Price Index

The first two stories from Bitcoin price analysis (cointelegraph.com), were

Other stories had different targets: 'Bitcoin Price May Rise To $3,000'; 'Bitcoin Price Likely to Hit $3,500 This Year'; 'Investors See $4,000 Ahead'. The actual price continued to rise, with a few hiccups on the way.

The month's peak at $2700 was nearly double the price at the month's start. The month ended with the price on the rise again.

That last story explained,

OKCoin is the largest Bitcoin exchange in China which processes 31 percent of trades within the Chinese Bitcoin exchange market. In February, OKCoin and Huobi, the two largest Bitcoin exchanges in China, were flagged by the People’s Bank of China for operating a trading platform without appropriate Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) systems

The month ended with more predictions of fantastic gains for bitcoin owners: 'Bitcoin Price Could Reach $10,000 In Few Months'; 'Bitcoin Price Could Hit $100,000 in 10 Years'. Is this a classic case of supply-and-demand or an evolving example of the greater fool theory?

13 May 2017

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-04 More++

In contrast to the price news -- 'Bitcoin Price Breaks All-Time High', etc. (see Bitcoin in the News : 2017-04 Price) -- April was a relatively quiet month for other bitcoin news. Of the more significant stories, another contrast appeared in the adoption of bitcoin by two of the planet's more important economies. While Japan moved forward...

...India moved backward in political circles and sideways elsewhere.

Other news included a typical story related to bitcoin's mysterious origins...

  • 2017-04-13: Bitcoin: Self-Proclaimed Inventor's Firm Sold to Private Equity (fortune.com) • 'A company built around the research of Craig Wright, who has claimed to have invented the bitcoin cryptocurrency, has been sold to a private equity firm in a deal the company says is the biggest to date involving bitcoin's underlying blockchain technology.'

...and a couple of stories that enhance bitcoin's bad boy reputation:-

That last story leads back to the mysterious origins.

But some speculate the goal of the project is not to rob a whole lot of wallets, but instead to strike a mother lode from a long-lost wallet from bitcoin's early days: "About 10% of Bitcoins were created early, before 2012, and have never been traded. If somebody ever finds the key of the early lost Bitcoins, they'll have a huge payoff, over a billion dollars. Speculation is that either "Satoshi Nakamoto", whoever he is, is holding onto them for a big payoff, or somebody lost the private key for all those early Bitcoins."

With that in mind, it takes a business school professor to ask the question:-

If your answer is 'Yes!', then the next story is for you.

Does having a bitcoin blog make me an evangelist? Short answer: 'No!'. Long answer: 'No, of course not!'.

06 May 2017

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-04 Price

Just like last month, in Bitcoin in the News : 2017-03 Price, let's look at bitcoin price action for the month of April. The chart for the last 30 days shows a slow upward trend for the first few weeks, followed by a sharp rise near the end of the month.


Bitcoin Price Index

The main stories from Bitcoin price analysis (cointelegraph.com) for this period were:-

Arbitrage making the price rise -- how does that work? From the second link:-

Bitcoin price in the US, which holds 26.6 percent of the global Bitcoin exchange market share averaging at $1,315. On the other hand, Japan, the largest Bitcoin exchange market, is demonstrating an average price of $1,297. Competitors in the US Bitcoin exchange market including Bitstamp expressed their concerns over the current Bitfinex issue and its conflict with its intermediary banks.

The logic here isn't at all clear to me. Neither is the logic behind these predictions from the same source:-

That's not bad for an asset that isn't backed by anything tangible.

15 April 2017

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-03 More++

In my previous post, Bitcoin in the News : 2017-03 Price, I identified two underlying reasons for the price changes in March: the SEC ETF decision and the scalability debate. Let's look at those ongoing sagas in more depth.

Quoting from the article,

The commission said it was rejecting the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust because the markets where Bitcoin are currently traded are largely unregulated. The lack of such regulation, the commission said, raised "concerns about the potential for fraudulent or manipulative acts and practices in this market."

and later,

The twins already won regulatory approval from New York authorities for their Gemini Exchange, where virtual currencies can be bought and sold by professional traders. The proposed ETF would have been tied to the price of Bitcoin on the exchange. Most Bitcoin, however, are traded outside the United States, beyond the reach of American regulators. The virtual currency emerged in 2009 and was celebrated for its ability to circumvent government authorities. [NB: 'Bitcoin are traded', i.e. capitalized and plural]

Many bitcoiners are passionately proud that the object of their affection is outside any central government control. Looks like another example of cake that can't be eaten. As for the scalability debate, I noted a slew of stories from the same source, cointelegraph.com [NB: 'Bitcoin Core' (BTC) vs. 'Bitcoin Unlimited' (BTU)]:-

Although the last word has yet to be said, the hard fork isn't looking good for bitcoiners. ETF and scalability in the same month: looks like another example of the old double whammy. I noted a handful of other stories that expanded my knowledge of bitcoin.

Three out of those five stories are again from cointelegraph.com. That in itself is a story.

08 April 2017

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-03 Price

I ended last month's post, Bitcoin in the News : 2017-02 Price, with,
I'm almost certain that I'll be doing a post next month for 2017-03 Price.

And so it is! One important difference needs to be flagged: the chart source has changed so a straightforward month-to-month comparison isn't possible.


Bitcoin Price Index

The new source is Live Bitcoin price and market cap (cryptocompare.com). Squinting at the post for '2017-02 Price' tells me that the previous source was BitcoinChain.com. The previous source allowed a custom date range, which the new source doesn't offer, so the chart shown above shows the month preceding my snapshot. As for the stories behind the price chart, I once again turn to Bitcoin price analysis (cointelegraph.com):-

Buy on the rumors, sell on the news? -or- Pump and dump? Maybe they are one and the same.