I'm in the camp that believes the halving is already priced in, and that other, still unknown factors will determine the ensuing bull/bear psychologies. Any other scenario assumes that the bitcoin market is not efficient.
Two stories dominated the April news. The first was the continuing fallout from the March coronavirus crash. The second was the 'halving'. About a third of the news stories on my short list were on the halving. I decided to concentrate on those to learn what the experts had to say.
2020-04-02: What to Expect When You’re Expecting... the Bitcoin Block Halving (cointelegraph.com)
"On both prior occasions, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high within 12 months, with the latest coming in December 2017 when the price reached about $20,000, which was followed by a massive decline," Bill Herrmann, CEO of alternative investment banking firm, Wilshire Phoenix, told Cointelegraph in an email on March 10.
That story had a number of bullets delineating its main points:-
Times have changed since Bitcoin’s inception
Tying the coronavirus into crypto and the halving
Bitcoin’s halving comes every four years
BTC price may not yet reflect the halving event’s impact
2020-04-03: Manufacturers Mark Down Bitcoin Miners as Price Drop, Halving Change Calculus (coindesk.com)
Last month’s [March] crash in cryptocurrency prices has prompted manufacturers to sell inventories at a discount, in some cases as steep as 20 percent, over the past few weeks. Both the newest models and slightly older [mining] machines have been marked down. Complicating the matter is the imminent bitcoin (BTC) halving in May that will reduce the network's mining reward by half, causing most miners to be less profitable if bitcoin’s price doesn’t increase significantly by then. [...]
Blockware Solutions, a reseller of bitcoin ASIC miners in North America that also operates mining facilities, said in a recent research report that the market crash in March, together with the coming halving, has led to a significant decrease of bitcoin’s mining computing power -- which in the long run, could be an encouraging sign for the market’s efficiency.
2020-04-08: Bitcoin Cash Undergoes 'Halving' Event, Casting Shadow on Miner Profitability (coindesk.com)
Bitcoin Cash – the blockchain that forked off Bitcoin in 2017 – has just reduced its block rewards by half, causing many miners to see gross margins drop to near zero. [...] The Bitcoin Cash event foreshadows the halving scheduled for the Bitcoin network in about 35 days. Bitcoin is 26 times larger than BCH in terms of market capitalization.
2020-04-12: May’s Bitcoin Rewards Halving Will Force Weak Miners Off the Network (cointelegraph.com)
The Bitcoin miner reward halving is almost here, but what if there’s no price pump? Can the miners stay afloat?
Bullets:-
Miners also affect the price
Bitcoin’s price didn’t rise. Wait. What? [some 'need the price to stay at $7,600–$13,000']
Hedging: Futures and options
Miners still have a few tricks [e.g. 'colocation services', 'mobile mining units', 'switch to another coin']
The Bitcoin show must go on
2020-04-14: Options Market Signals Doubt Bitcoin Price Will Rise After Halving (coindesk.com)
While some expect bitcoin’s (BTC) upcoming reward halving to light a fire under the cryptocurrency, the options market seems worried about the event turning out to be a wet blanket.
Bullets:-
Halving is not always bullish ['Litecoin, the seventh-largest cryptocurrency, underwent reward halving on Aug. 5, 2019, after which the cryptocurrency’s price fell'; others]
Put options draw higher prices
Equities are not out of the woods yet
2020-04-16: Bitcoin Showing Unprecedented Pre-Halving Price Action; Here’s What This Means (bitcoinist.com)
Bitcoin’s upcoming mining rewards halving has long been looked upon as a fundamental event that would help bolster its underlying strength and catalyze some immense upwards price action. This sentiment has been largely rooted in historical precedent, as the benchmark cryptocurrency has long seen immense bull-favoring volatility in the time directly preceding and following this event. It doesn’t seem as though the same can be said for the halving that is occurring in just a few weeks from now, however, as this is the first time in Bitcoin’s decade-long history that it is entering the halving with a negative 90-day return.
2020-04-22: What Halving? 2 Factors Making Some Analysts Turn Bearish on Bitcoin (cointelegraph.com)
As the Bitcoin price dropped to sub-$7,000, technical analysts pointed out that BTC broke down from a crucial trendline dating back to March 16. While markets signal for short-term relief, traders foresee a severe pullback occurring for two key reasons despite less than three weeks remaining before the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving. The two compelling cases for a Bitcoin correction in the foreseeable future are a breach of a major trendline signaling overhead resistance and a lower high pattern at a high time frame.
Bullets:-
Challenging for Bitcoin to recover on a straight line from near capitulation
There are variables to prevent a big crash
2020-04-27: Bitcoin Hits Highest Level Since Black Thursday Amid Halving Buzz (coindesk.com)
The top cryptocurrency by market value rose to $7,800 early on Monday to hit its highest level since March 12 -- dubbed "Black Thursday" -- when prices fell from $7,950 to $4,700 as the coronavirus pandemic crashed most markets.
2020-04-30: Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency prices rise due to central banks, halving (cnbc.com)
The entire market capitalization or value of cryptocurrencies jumped $35.3 billion in 24 hours. Bitcoin was at $9,388.30 -- or up 18.57% in the last 24 hours
That last story was the only one in the list to emanate from a non-cryptocoin specialist. In a nutshell:-
- The past is not necessarily prologue
- Miners face a shakeout
- In the supply-demand equilibrium, the decreasing supply favors a price rise, while new demand is unknown
- The coronavirus background represents a significant, unpredictable element
- Technical trends can't be ignored
The halving will occur sometime in the next week. I'll come back to the subject after we know its immediate effects.
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