Bitcoin in the News : 2018-08 Price

For the third consecutive month, lack of time -- i.e. vacation! -- prevents me from posting a full report on last month's bitcoin price movements. Just like last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2018-07 Price, I'll have to settle for the usual price chart and reduced commentary.

The month showed an asymmetric 'V' shape. The price declined during the first few weeks, hit a monthly bottom around $6000, then increased during the last few weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

As for the associated commentary, the last time I attempted anything was Bitcoin in the News : 2018-05 Price. The first part was a look at Cointelegraph's Analysis category. The second part was a separate look at the category's articles on technical analysis, which disappeared that month.

This month I discovered that the technical analysis has been available all along via the Price Analysis tag. Every article also has further tags for the individual cryptocoins included in the analysis. It would be worth the time to look at those tags to understand how the Cointelegraph site is structured.

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-07 More++

After seeing the chart of bitcoin's price movements in July, Bitcoin in the News : 2018-07 Price, what sort of stories accompanied those movements? Last month, in Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 More++, I tracked the month using a single news source, CNBC. This month I could have done the same, but I noticed that another source, Forbes, was getting even more attention from my aggregator, Google News.

Here are the Forbes.com stories I collected for my short list, although I easily had more than double this number available from Forbes. Most of the other Forbes stories were of the type 'bitcoin will go {up/down/sideways : choose a direction}'.

• 2018-07-06: Are Bitcoin, Crypto Markets Rigged?
• 2018-07-09: New Paper Reveals Massive Bitcoin Backing • 'Digital currencies are primed for mass adoption'
• 2018-07-11: Bitcoin's Computing Power Growth Is Outpacing The Bitcoin Price
• 2018-07-12: Canadian Central Bank Bitcoin Survey Reveals Worrying Crypto Trends • 'Though [Canadians] are increasingly aware of bitcoin and cryptocurrency, they aren't using it.'
• 2018-07-13: Bitcoin Is A Logarithmic Asset • 'Bitcoin and crypto have been growing and behaving logarithmically. This is a field mark of viral growth.'
• 2018-07-15: Does The Russian Indictment Exonerate Bitcoin? • 'indictment of 12 Russian operatives [...] and the use of bitcoin as a means of payment'
• 2018-07-21: Bitcoin And Stellar Get A Big Boost From IBM's 'Stable Coin'
• 2018-07-22: EU Issues Worrying Warning Over Future Of Bitcoin • 'Bitcoin and other decentralised cryptocurrencies could be derailed by the world's central banks.'

Of those stories, increasing power consumption and the Russian indictments were reported on by a number of other news outlets. Two other stories also attracted wider interest than other stories:-

• 2018-07-01: Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto May Be Writing A Book
• 2018-07-26: Winklevoss twins bitcoin ETF rejected by SEC

As I write this, the price of bitcoin has dropped back into the low $6000s. I'll cover that in next month's Bitcoin in the News.

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-07 Price

Just like last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 Price, this month's price post is bare bones. After two months in a downtrend, bitcoin headed upwards in July.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

And once again, I'll have to defer a discussion of the related Analysis -- see Bitcoin in the News : 2018-05 Price, ('the other stalwart of these monthly '20YY-MM Price' posts') for the most recent example. NB: Another note in that '2018-05 Price' post mentioned,

As for [...] the Cointelegraph technical analysis, the articles stopped appearing end-April. That's a pity, because I was just starting to get a feel for cryptocoin technicals.

I just noticed that these are now on the 'Price Index' page.

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 More++

Like my previous post, Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 Price, this current post is abbreviated because of vacation. After all, what's more important : (free) time or (free) money? If the essence of the previous post was 'searching for salvation'...

Odd numbered month down, even numbered month up? [...] The month of June was even numbered, but there weren't even a handful of days that could be considered up. Abandon hope all ye who have entered here?

...then the essence of the current post is 'searching for a bottom'. For example:-

• 2018-05-31: Bitcoin finds a bottom after plunging from highs: technician (cnbc.com) • Is a bottom.

That happens to be the first bitcoin article flagged by my Google news service in June. It also happens to be the first of many articles from CNBC flagged in June. Let's look at some of the others.

• 2018-06-04: Google searches for 'bitcoin' nosedive 75% this year (cnbc.com, as are all of the following)
• 2018-06-07: Bitcoin buyers 'beware,' says Jamie Dimon
• 2018-06-11: The big bitcoin investing decision: Coin or futures contract? • A bigger decision is whether or not to buy.
• 2018-06-12: Bitcoin hasn't hit bottom, cryptocurrency trader says • Not a bottom.
• 2018-06-13: Much of bitcoin's 2017 boom was market manipulation, research says • 'By tracking Bitfinex transactions, which are recorded on a public ledger, [University of Texas finance professor John Griffin] found that another cryptocurrency, tether. was used to buy bitcoin after large price falls.'
• 2018-06-19: Bitcoin volatility has plummeted, and that could be signaling a bottom • Might be a bottom.
• 2018-06-20: Bitcoin is 'not for me', Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein says
• 2018-06-20: Why bitcoin made a comeback after hacking: crypto traders • 'South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb was hacked and $30 million of coins were stolen.'
• 2018-06-22: Bitcoin tumbles after Japan orders exchanges to review practices
• 2018-06-25: Cryptocurrencies could fall because of forced selling of crypto funds
• 2018-06-25: Alibaba’s Jack Ma calls bitcoin a bubble
• 2018-06-29: Bitcoin slumps below $6,000 to November lows

'Is a bottom. Not a bottom. Might be a bottom.' • That last story ('slumps to November lows') says we haven't seen a bottom. Last year the talk was about bubbles; this year it's about bottoms.

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 Price

So much for simple-minded technical analysis. A month ago, in Bitcoin in the News : 2018-05 Price, I wrote,

Odd numbered month down, even numbered month up? That was the trend in last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2018-04 Price, which continued in the month of May. A handful of months does not make a trend, but it does make a lead paragraph.

The month of June was even numbered, but there weren't even a handful of days that could be considered up. Abandon hope all ye who have entered here?

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

Sharp-eyed visitors to this page might have noticed that the date of this post is the last Saturday of June, rather than the first Saturday of July, which would be the normal day for posting this. The reason for this is almost the same reason for ending the post right here.

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-05 More++

After the single-source news analysis in my previous post, Bitcoin in the News : 2018-05 Price, I had plenty of other stories from May to choose from. This first one was the most interesting, probably because I like writing 'Top Myths' stories myself:-

• 2018-05-03: Top Bitcoin Myths (investopedia.com)

The piece listed five myths and their refutations. Here are the bullets:-

1. Digital Currencies Are Primarily Used for Illicit Activity
2. Digital Currencies Don't Have Value
3. Cryptocurrencies Aren't Secure
4. Digital Currencies Are Bad for the Environment
5. Cryptocurrencies Are a Scam

As I was working my way through other stories from May, I realized that the 'myths' might not be myths at all. They are more like controversies. Following is one story confirming each of the five myths:-

1. Illicit Activity • 2018-05-23: Kidnappers snatch a 13-year-old South African boy and demand his ransom be paid in bitcoins (cnn.com)
2. Don't Have Value • 2018-05-01: Warren Buffett explains one thing people still don't understand about bitcoin (cnbc.com; 'Bitcoin isn't an investment')
3. Aren't Secure • 2018-05-29: Bitcoin Gold Suffers Rare '51% Attack' (fortune.com)
4. Bad for the Environment • 2018-05-29: Bitcoin backlash as ‘miners’ suck up electricity, stress power grids in Central Washington (seattletimes.com)
5. Are a Scam • 2018-05-24: Bitcoin Price Manipulation Probe Launched By Justice Department (bloomberg.com)

The difference between a myth and a controversy is like the difference between a fact and an opinion. Here are three more opinions from knowledgeable financial experts who have made correct calls many times in the past:-

• 2018-05-03: Nouriel Roubini says bitcoin is ‘bulls–t’ and only attracts ‘suckers’ (marketwatch.com)
• 2018-05-08: Warren Buffett says bitcoin is 'probably rat poison squared' (cnbc.com)
• 2018-05-21: Bitcoin could be another failed currency, Robert Shiller says (cnbc.com)

Compare these people with those who are trying to explode the 'myths'. What are their respective track records?

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-05 Price

Odd numbered month down, even numbered month up? That was the trend in last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2018-04 Price, which continued in the month of May. A handful of months does not make a trend, but it does make a lead paragraph.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

As for the other stalwart of these monthly '20YY-MM Price' posts, Cointelegraph's Analysis category (note that the title of the page has changed for the second time in two months), had 18 stories in May. Last month I tried to categorize the category:-

That makes a total of five dimensions for classifying cryptocurrency discussions. I'll see how this holds up in May.

Here is my tentative classification of the 18 stories for May.

Geographic:

• 2018-05-01: Banks And Cryptocurrencies Global Evaluation: Americas
• 2018-05-15: Despite Ongoing Probes, ICO Legalization in the Cards in South Korea
• 2018-05-24: Poland Continues Its Aggression Towards Crypto, But the Community Shows Force
• 2018-05-29: Iran: Crypto Adoption or Rejection?

Regulatory:

• 2018-05-05: “It Never Was a Security”: Ethereum Under The Regulatory Spotlight
• 2018-05-17: Cases Of Illegal Bitcoin And Cryptocurrency Mining: Chicken Farms And New York
• 2018-05-26: SEC, CFTC, IRS And Others: A Guide To US Regulating Bodies

Predictive:

• 2018-05-11: Financial Institutions In A Race: Who Will Bring Crypto Trading To The Fiat Masses First?
• 2018-05-25: Bitcoin’s Falling Price Nothing More Than Perception, Or Is There Manipulation?

Coin-specific: I called this 'Specific' in May, but the title is so vague that I kept referring to the previous post to remind me what it meant.

• 2018-05-03: How To Diversify Away Risk In A Crypto Portfolio: Correlation And Variance
• 2018-05-24: Top Ethereum Token Protocols Which May Replace ERC20
• 2018-05-29: 7 Myths About Ethereum Decentralization
• 2018-05-31: Bitcoin For America: Cryptocurrencies In Campaign Finance

Technological:

• 2018-05-03: Revenues Down, Hashrates Up: 2018 Mining Outlook By The Numbers
• 2018-05-06: A Glimpse Into The Future - What Happens When There Are No More Bitcoin To Mine?
• 2018-05-13: Women In Blockchain And Crypto: How To Tackle Gender Inequality
• 2018-05-17: Blockchain For Elections: Advantages, Cases, Challenges
• 2018-05-18: Why JP Morgan’s Blockchain Patent Application Is Not That Surprising

The classification held up well enough, although sometimes it's a toss-up: Should 'Ethereum Under The Regulatory Spotlight' be considered 'Regulatory' or is it 'Coin-specific'? It's both, but I don't want to introduce a matrix classification for an off-hand experiment. Another gray area is 'Women In Blockchain And Crypto'. Is this really 'Technological'?

As for the last discussion point in the '2018-04 Price' post, the Cointelegraph technical analysis, the articles stopped appearing end-April. That's a pity, because I was just starting to get a feel for cryptocoin technicals.