The month of March saw a resumption of that 'steady downward trend'.
The month of April looked more like a typical month in 2017, a 'steady upward trend'.
In posts up to and including last month, I've been trying to understand the price movements using Cointelegraph's 'Bitcoin Price Analysis (BPA)'. The URL hasn't changed, but the Cointelegraph page is now titled Cryptocurrency and Company Analysis (I'll call it CCA), with the further explanation:-
Latest analysis of cryptocurrencies, ICOs, companies and technologies by experts from Cointelegraph.
The April CCA had 23 stories, of which 14 were non-routine. I discovered that I could classify the 'non-routine' stories into a number of broad themes or dimensions. Here are the themes that I determined for April.
Geographic: Cryptocurrencies are a global phenomenon. Asia was the dominant area for stories in April, but this was probably just a coincidence.
- 2018-04-01: China’s New Central Bank Head Is Pro-Market, Could It Impact Cryptocurrency Industry? 'Yi Gang, an American-trained economist, has been elected by the Chinese government to take over the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the country’s central bank, as its head. The election of a pro-market economist could have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market.'
- 2018-04-07: Bitcoin, Ethereum Prices Remain Steady Despite ‘Crypto Ban’ From India’s Central Bank 'The crypto markets are holding their own this week, with Bitcoin (BTC) not venturing too far away from $7,000, even amid news that India’s central bank would stop dealing with crypto-related businesses.'
- 2018-04-12: National Currency, Scam And Police Violence: What’s Going On With Crypto In India
- 2018-04-18: Banks and the Crypto Industry: Asia
Regulatory: Although this is related to the 'Geographic' angle, the issues cut across (e.g.) national boundaries.
- 2018-04-09: How Anonymous Is the Purchase of Crypto? Regulations, Practice, Risks
- 2018-04-09: What Do Recent Legislative Developments Mean For Crypto Users Privacy
Predictive: It's almost a cliché that 'Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results', but what else is there to use as a guide?
- 2018-04-06: Q1 Breaks All the Wrong Bitcoin Price Records, But Why Should Crypto Market Be Optimistic For Q2?
- 2018-04-19: Bitcoin Headed For $100,000 Or $100? CEOs, Big Investors And Harvard Economist Predictions
Specific: With the exception of bitcoin, I'm not particularly interested in following the trials and triumphs of particular coins. This is nevertheless an important dimension.
- 2018-04-09: Is Serenity The Solution To Ethereum’s Difficulty Bomb?
- 2018-04-20: Litecoin Courting TenX and Korbit - Just a Month after LitePay ‘Breakup’
Technological: April saw only stories about the blockchain, but I imagine that mining also belongs here.
- 2018-04-09: Malta Determined To Become the ‘Blockchain Island’: Regulations, Adoption, Binance Headquarters
- 2018-04-20: Decentralized Exchanges, Off-Chain Atomic Swaps, And A Brief Look Into The Future 'For an economy that emphasizes decentralization, cryptocurrency has ironically relied primarily on centralized platforms of exchange. This is problematic as they often hold funds in giant "honeypot" addresses that attract sophisticated attackers. This has resulted in several cases where exchange funds have been drained.'
- 2018-04-26: From Pork to Diamonds: How Blockchain Is Making the Logistics Industry Transparent
- 2018-04-26: Blockchain-based Ad Service Revolution: Crypto Answer to Social Media Bans
That makes a total of five dimensions for classifying cryptocurrency discussions. I'll see how this holds up in May. As for the 'routine' Cointelegraph stories, I'll pick one from from mid-month for a brief analysis, just like I did for the '2018-03 Price' post.
- 2018-04-16: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Stellar, Litecoin, Cardano, NEO, EOS: Price Analysis, April 16 'Have the cryptocurrencies bottomed out or will they fall again after a short pullback? That is the question troubling most of the market participants currently sitting on the fence. A bottom can be confirmed only in hindsight but the analysts try to call it in advance, using various tools.'
The title lists the same nine cryptocoins I saw in March and the article has the same sort of technical analysis. Looking at the discussion of specific coins, I saw heavy reliance on the '50-day simple moving average (SMA)' along with identification of resistance and support levels. Is that the focus of cryptocoin technical analysis?
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