12 December 2020
05 December 2020
14 November 2020
07 November 2020
10 October 2020
03 October 2020
12 September 2020
05 September 2020
08 August 2020
01 August 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-07 Price
[TBD]
11 July 2020
04 July 2020
13 June 2020
06 June 2020
16 May 2020
The Halving
The halving will occur sometime in the next week. I'll come back to the subject after we know its immediate effects.
The chart below shows bitcoin price and volume for the past week. (NB: This is unlike most of my 'Bitcoin in the News' charts, which cover an entire month.) Before I looked up the exact time of the halving, I guessed it was on 11 May, based on the price volatility and the volume spikes that day.
Cointelegraph -- the service behind the price chart -- announced,
Bitcoin’s third halving event took place at 7:23 p.m. UTC [Universal Time Coordinated, aka GMT] on Monday [11 May 2020], according to data from Tradeblock.com. Having overcome the halving, Bitcoin is trading at $8,500, with market dominance of 67% as of press time, according to Coin360.
in a story, It Happened: Bitcoin Just Experienced Third Halving in Its History, published that same day. Note also the 1000 point drop and volume spike -- the largest of the week -- on the previous day, 10 May. I'll look at these events in more detail for next month's 'Bitcoin in the News' price post.
09 May 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-04 More++
I'm in the camp that believes the halving is already priced in, and that other, still unknown factors will determine the ensuing bull/bear psychologies. Any other scenario assumes that the bitcoin market is not efficient.
Two stories dominated the April news. The first was the continuing fallout from the March coronavirus crash. The second was the 'halving'. About a third of the news stories on my short list were on the halving. I decided to concentrate on those to learn what the experts had to say.
2020-04-02: What to Expect When You’re Expecting... the Bitcoin Block Halving (cointelegraph.com)
"On both prior occasions, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high within 12 months, with the latest coming in December 2017 when the price reached about $20,000, which was followed by a massive decline," Bill Herrmann, CEO of alternative investment banking firm, Wilshire Phoenix, told Cointelegraph in an email on March 10.
That story had a number of bullets delineating its main points:-
Times have changed since Bitcoin’s inception
Tying the coronavirus into crypto and the halving
Bitcoin’s halving comes every four years
BTC price may not yet reflect the halving event’s impact
2020-04-03: Manufacturers Mark Down Bitcoin Miners as Price Drop, Halving Change Calculus (coindesk.com)
Last month’s [March] crash in cryptocurrency prices has prompted manufacturers to sell inventories at a discount, in some cases as steep as 20 percent, over the past few weeks. Both the newest models and slightly older [mining] machines have been marked down. Complicating the matter is the imminent bitcoin (BTC) halving in May that will reduce the network's mining reward by half, causing most miners to be less profitable if bitcoin’s price doesn’t increase significantly by then. [...]
Blockware Solutions, a reseller of bitcoin ASIC miners in North America that also operates mining facilities, said in a recent research report that the market crash in March, together with the coming halving, has led to a significant decrease of bitcoin’s mining computing power -- which in the long run, could be an encouraging sign for the market’s efficiency.
2020-04-08: Bitcoin Cash Undergoes 'Halving' Event, Casting Shadow on Miner Profitability (coindesk.com)
Bitcoin Cash – the blockchain that forked off Bitcoin in 2017 – has just reduced its block rewards by half, causing many miners to see gross margins drop to near zero. [...] The Bitcoin Cash event foreshadows the halving scheduled for the Bitcoin network in about 35 days. Bitcoin is 26 times larger than BCH in terms of market capitalization.
2020-04-12: May’s Bitcoin Rewards Halving Will Force Weak Miners Off the Network (cointelegraph.com)
The Bitcoin miner reward halving is almost here, but what if there’s no price pump? Can the miners stay afloat?
Bullets:-
Miners also affect the price
Bitcoin’s price didn’t rise. Wait. What? [some 'need the price to stay at $7,600–$13,000']
Hedging: Futures and options
Miners still have a few tricks [e.g. 'colocation services', 'mobile mining units', 'switch to another coin']
The Bitcoin show must go on
2020-04-14: Options Market Signals Doubt Bitcoin Price Will Rise After Halving (coindesk.com)
While some expect bitcoin’s (BTC) upcoming reward halving to light a fire under the cryptocurrency, the options market seems worried about the event turning out to be a wet blanket.
Bullets:-
Halving is not always bullish ['Litecoin, the seventh-largest cryptocurrency, underwent reward halving on Aug. 5, 2019, after which the cryptocurrency’s price fell'; others]
Put options draw higher prices
Equities are not out of the woods yet
2020-04-16: Bitcoin Showing Unprecedented Pre-Halving Price Action; Here’s What This Means (bitcoinist.com)
Bitcoin’s upcoming mining rewards halving has long been looked upon as a fundamental event that would help bolster its underlying strength and catalyze some immense upwards price action. This sentiment has been largely rooted in historical precedent, as the benchmark cryptocurrency has long seen immense bull-favoring volatility in the time directly preceding and following this event. It doesn’t seem as though the same can be said for the halving that is occurring in just a few weeks from now, however, as this is the first time in Bitcoin’s decade-long history that it is entering the halving with a negative 90-day return.
2020-04-22: What Halving? 2 Factors Making Some Analysts Turn Bearish on Bitcoin (cointelegraph.com)
As the Bitcoin price dropped to sub-$7,000, technical analysts pointed out that BTC broke down from a crucial trendline dating back to March 16. While markets signal for short-term relief, traders foresee a severe pullback occurring for two key reasons despite less than three weeks remaining before the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving. The two compelling cases for a Bitcoin correction in the foreseeable future are a breach of a major trendline signaling overhead resistance and a lower high pattern at a high time frame.
Bullets:-
Challenging for Bitcoin to recover on a straight line from near capitulation
There are variables to prevent a big crash
2020-04-27: Bitcoin Hits Highest Level Since Black Thursday Amid Halving Buzz (coindesk.com)
The top cryptocurrency by market value rose to $7,800 early on Monday to hit its highest level since March 12 -- dubbed "Black Thursday" -- when prices fell from $7,950 to $4,700 as the coronavirus pandemic crashed most markets.
2020-04-30: Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency prices rise due to central banks, halving (cnbc.com)
The entire market capitalization or value of cryptocurrencies jumped $35.3 billion in 24 hours. Bitcoin was at $9,388.30 -- or up 18.57% in the last 24 hours
That last story was the only one in the list to emanate from a non-cryptocoin specialist. In a nutshell:-
- The past is not necessarily prologue
- Miners face a shakeout
- In the supply-demand equilibrium, the decreasing supply favors a price rise, while new demand is unknown
- The coronavirus background represents a significant, unpredictable element
- Technical trends can't be ignored
The halving will occur sometime in the next week. I'll come back to the subject after we know its immediate effects.
02 May 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-04 Price
In March, the downtrend continued. From a peak of US$ 9000, the bitcoin price fell to US$ 5000, before recovering to US$ 6000.
In April, the price returned to its March peak.
Another remark from last month is also appropriate:-
Comparing the '2020-02 Price' chart, note the loss of most price sources in the current chart. They were restored sometime after I took the snapshot.
The same happened with the chart shown above. All price sources were missing at the time I took that snapshot, but were back when I wrote this current post. As for the spikes in volume during the month, I count three:-
2020-04-02 16:00 ?
2020-04-23 12:00 jump in price
2020-04-29 16:00 big jump
The first spike marked '?' had no corresponding change in price. The two other spikes accounted for much of the month's gain in price. Only the third spike merited atention in Cointelegraph's Analysis category:-
-
2020-04-29:
With Bitcoin Price Surging, What Do Key Trends Say About BTC Halving?
•
'Ahead of Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, all major trends surrounding the premier cryptocurrency seem to be positive.'
-
2020-04-30:
Interest in Bitcoin Spikes Worldwide During COVID-19 Crisis
•
'Bitcoin might not be the most stable asset out there, but it is more stable than some economies.'
- 2020-05-01: Top Crypto Traders Explain Where Bitcoin Price Will Go After $9,400 Rally • 'Leading crypto traders lay out both bearish and bullish scenarios for Bitcoin as the halving approaches.'
When will 'the halving' occur? Another Cointelegraph article, Bitcoin Halving Explained (December 2019), informs,
Q: When will the next Bitcoin halving take place? • A: The week commencing 18 May 2020, based on current performance, but it might be 14 May.
That article is five months old, so I assume the date has been pinpointed more precisely since then. I'm in the camp that believes the halving is already priced in, and that other, still unknown factors will determine the ensuing bull/bear psychologies. Any other scenario assumes that the bitcoin market is not efficient.
Back to the three April spikes in volume, Cointelegraph's Price Analysis tag served up analysis stories covering each spike.
- 2020-04-03: Price Analysis April 3: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LEO • 'Bitcoin price continues to push higher but major cryptocurrencies should sustain above their 20-day EMA to confirm that the downtrend might be over.'
- 2020-04-24: Price Analysis 4/24: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK • 'Bitcoin is close to breaking out of its overhead resistance. This has resulted in strong price action in some altcoins, which suggests that the investor sentiment is bullish.'
- 2020-04-29: Price Analysis 4/29: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, XLM • 'Bitcoin’s impressive rally has pushed the crypto markets higher, leading traders to wonder if the uptrend will last through the halving event.'
- 2020-05-01: Price Analysis 5/1: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, BNB, EOS, XTZ, XLM • 'Most major cryptocurrencies are facing resistance at higher levels, meaning a few days of consolidation could be needed before the rally can resume.'
Those first two calls -- 04-03 & 04-24 -- were accurate. The last two will have to wait until next month's cookie cutter 'Price' post.
11 April 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-03 More++
Remember when Bitcoin was supposed to be digital gold? That’s what guys at Goldman Sachs were saying for at least two years. The theory: Bitcoin would behave as a safe haven asset, a digital one, in times of trouble. When the recession comes, everyone will want one.'
As the price slump continued into March, that theme was repeated many times. Some analysts came to the same 'safe haven' conclusion. Others came to the opposite conclusion. Here are a half dozen 'bitcoin vs. gold' articles flagged by Google News in March. Unlike the Forbes.com article, these were all from services specializing in crypto currencies:-
- 2020-03-03: Bitcoin Has 'Solidified Role' as Investors’ Digital Gold -- Grayscale (cointelegraph.com)
- 2020-03-10: Gold Bugs Smug as Bitcoin Follows Markets’ Plunge (beincrypto.com)
- 2020-03-14[?]: Everything You Need to Know About Gold and Bitcoin (coinnewsspan.com)
- 2020-03-14: Bitcoin & Gold 'Are Doing the Same Thing' in Coronavirus Crisis: Pomp (cointelegraph.com) • 'Pomp' = Anthony Pompliano
- 2020-03-17: Here’s How Bitcoin Can Bring Digital Gold Narrative Back to Life (ccn.com)
- 2020-03-24: 'Only Fools are Choosing Bitcoin' Says Gold Bug Peter Schiff (cointelegraph.com)
Half of those references are to Cointelegraph.com articles. While I was preparing this present post, Cointelegraph kept playing an embedded video:-
- 2020-04-09: The End of the “Fiat Experiment” and the Rise of Bitcoin | Interview With Anthony Pompliano (youtube.com; Cointelegraph channel)
That's the same Anthony Pompliano (aka 'Pomp') mentioned in the article titled 'Bitcoin & Gold "Are Doing the Same Thing"'. I'm not much interested in bitcoin cheerleaders, but at times he makes some good points. At other times he's talking through his cap.
Has Anthony Pompliano ever debated Peter 'Only Fools are Choosing Bitcoin' Schiff? Given that bitcoin has no intrinsic value, maybe 'digital gold' is a euphemism for 'fools gold'.
04 April 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-03 Price
In January, the price was up, up, and away. [In February], that trend continued until mid-month, then reversed direction.
In March, the downtrend continued. From a peak of US$ 9000, the bitcoin price fell to US$ 5000, before recovering to US$ 6000.
Comparing the '2020-02 Price' chart, note the loss of most price sources in the current chart. They were restored sometime after I took the snapshot. Although there were a half-dozen instances of high volume, for this post I'll concentrate on a one week period covering the slide from US$ 9000 to 5000:-
2020-03-07 16:00 peak for month
2020-03-12 00:00 start of slide
2020-03-13 00:00 end of slide
I found two relevant stories in Cointelegraph's Analysis category. Both attributed the decline to the general panic in worldwide markets:-
-
2020-03-14:
Bitcoin Price Correlates With Traditional Assets, but Not Entirely
•
'Following the World Health Organization's recent declaration of the novel coronavirus pandemic on March 11 with the independent research body citing 118,000 cases and more than 4,000 deaths globally this rosy picture seems to have reversed almost overnight. Additionally, ever since news of the medical emergency went live, markets all over the world began to crash at an unprecedented rate, with powerhouse economies such as Australia and India already gearing up for a period of heavy recession.'
- 2020-03-14: BTC Plunge, YouTube Ban & Other Challenges: Bad Crypto News of the Week • 'Bitcoin has been on a downward streak for the last week, down around 15 percent over the last seven days. That's bad but it could be worse. You might have put your money in stocks. Some people, though, remain optimistic.'
The theory of bitcoin as a 'safe haven' was thereby thoroughly debunked. That second story, 'Bad Crypto News of the Week', is an ongoing theme. I noted three other stories on the same theme over the past month (or so):-
- 2020-02-29: Coronavirus, Drug Dealers and Buffett's BTC: Bad Crypto News of the Week
- 2020-03-07: Steem Scandal, Blockchain Voting Fiasco & More: Bad Crypto News of the Week
- 2020-04-04: April Fools, Celebrity Scams, & Manipulated Markets: Bad Crypto News of the Week
Finally, here are the relevant stories from Cointelegraph's Price Analysis tag. The quotes are from the tag's index page:-
-
2020-03-06:
Price Analysis Mar 6: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK
•
'Several cryptocurrencies have broken out of their first resistance levels, which suggests that the bulls might be back in the game.'
-
2020-03-09:
Price Analysis Mar 9: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK
•
'The crypto markets have turned down sharply over the weekend and are threatening to wipe out all the gains made in 2020.'
-
2020-03-12:
Price Analysis Mar 12: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK
•
'The crypto markets are currently facing a strong wave of selling leading traders to focus on whether cryptocurrencies will form panic bottoms soon.'
-
2020-03-13:
Price Analysis Mar 13: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LEO
•
'The crypto markets are attempting a relief rally but are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This shows that selling is not over yet.'
- 2020-03-16: Price Analysis Mar 16: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LEO • 'The crypto markets are showing some buying at lower levels, which is a positive sign as it shows that investors are accumulating on dips'
Each of those stories starts with 4-5 paragraphs of analysis relating the crypto market to global trends. Examples (the italics are mine):-
2020-03-06: 'Roughly 42% of the total Bitcoin supply has not moved in the past two years. This shows that the investors are holding on to their Bitcoin as they expect the price to rally further.'
2020-03-09: 'Although Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped about 26% from its highs, it is still up about 7% year-to-date. This shows that it is outperforming both equity and oil markets.'
2020-03-12: 'Volatility has spiked to levels not seen since the last financial crisis. This shows that fear has gripped the traders and they are likely to sell everything at hand. Even gold sold off today.'
All of those trends probably lasted no longer than the time it took to write the analysis. 'This shows that' fuzzy thinking is the norm for bitcoin believers.
14 March 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-02 More++
I picked out four high volume periods worth investigating. Two were from the first, rising half of the month, two from the second, falling half.
For this post, I'll combine those four high volume periods with all of the February stories that I identified from Forbes. The stories through the day after a high volume period are grouped together.
05-Feb-20 16:00 +
- 2020-02-03: The Coronavirus Could See Bitcoin ‘Explode In Value’
- 2020-02-05: Jack Dorsey-Backed Lightning Labs Raises $10 Million To Build Visa Network For Bitcoin
- 2020-02-05: Bitcoin Prices Rise To Highest Since October
- 2020-02-06: Bitcoin Is Roaring Toward $10,000 But It’s Being Wrecked By These Other Cryptos
- 2020-02-06: Coronavirus Proves Bitcoin’s Value And Use Case For Good
11-Feb-20 16:00 +
- 2020-02-07: Stakes For Bitcoin Are Highest Since The 2017 Bubble
- 2020-02-08: Is Bitcoin Struggling To Reach $10,000?
- 2020-02-09: This Bitcoin Bull Run Is Extremely Different To 2017’s Epic Rally
- 2020-02-10: Bitcoin Is Heading For $11,000
- 2020-02-10: What's Next For Bitcoin After Its Drop Below $10,000?
19-Feb-20 20:00 -
- 2020-02-16: Blow To Bitcoin As ‘Significant’ U.S. Crypto Crackdown Suddenly Revealed
- 2020-02-16: Can All Of Bitcoin Be Hacked?
- 2020-02-18: Samsung Is Quietly Becoming A Major Bitcoin, Crypto And Blockchain Player
26-Feb-20 16:00 -
- 2020-02-21: The Surprising Way Millions Are Being Introduced To Bitcoin ['video-sharing app TikTok']
- 2020-02-22: A Fed Governor And Watchdog Boss Made A Serious Bitcoin And Crypto Warning [Randal Quarles, 'Chair of the Financial Stability Board and U.S. Federal Reserve governor']
- 2020-02-23: Binance CEO Makes Rare Price Prediction -- Says This Is When To Buy Bitcoin
- 2020-02-25: The Biggest Threat To Bitcoin Is Back On Track [Facebook's Libra]
- 2020-02-27: Bitcoin Has Crashed -- Now What?
- 2020-02-28: Remember When Bitcoin Was Supposed To Be Good As Gold? It Isn’t
All of the groups, except the third, have a story covering the high volume period. The story dated 2020-02-27 in the last group says,
Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market crash comes as global stocks go into meltdown due to the coronavirus spreading around the world.
It relates to two coronavirus stories in the first group (which are positive for bitcoin) plus the last story in the fourth group (negative for bitcoin). The month of March should provide more evidence supporting one side of this difference of opinion.
07 March 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-02 Price
In January, the price was up, up, and away.
As Cointelegraph's February price chart shows, that trend continued until mid-month, then reversed direction.
I picked out four high volume periods worth investigating. Two were from the first, rising half of the month, two from the second, falling half:-
05-Feb-20 16:00 +
11-Feb-20 16:00 +
19-Feb-20 20:00 -
26-Feb-20 16:00 -
Cointelegraph's Analysis category flagged nothing significant to account for those periods of interest, so I turned to the service's Price Analysis tag. As usual, the discussions were based on technical analysis.
-
2020-02-07:
Price Analysis Feb 7: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, ADA, XTZ
•
'The institutional investors have maintained their bullish stance on Bitcoin. Though the spot price is yet to hit $10,000, CME Bitcoin futures have already reached the five-figure mark.'
- 2020-02-12: Price Analysis Feb 12: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, ADA • 'The bulls are attempting to push Bitcoin above the overhead resistance at $10,360.89. If successful, a rally to the long-term downtrend line at $11,500 is possible. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in positive territory show that bulls have the upper hand.' [RSI = Relative Strength Index]
In retrospect, that looks like happy talk. Aren't the bulls and the bears all reading the same charts?
-
2020-02-21:
Price Analysis Feb 21: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK
•
'Contrary to our assumption, if the bulls fail to push the price above $10,500, the bears will make another attempt to sink the price to the critical support at $9,097.15. If this support breaks down, the advantage will turn in favor of the bears.'
- 2020-02-26: Price Analysis Feb 26: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, ADA • 'The equity markets sold off sharply on Feb. 24 and 25. Even gold, a traditional safe-haven has stalled its rally. On similar lines, cryptocurrencies are also witnessing a period of correction.'
The word 'correction' implies a general uptrend. What happens when a 'correction' becomes 'capitulation'? In the case of bitcoin, everyone might simply walk away.
15 February 2020
Highest Market Caps
I created the single news feed in the early days of this blog -- documented in the post Market Resources (August 2015) -- and haven't touched it since, although in the years since then the symbol BTCS has evolved and been assigned to different companies. Using both 'bitcoin' and 'blockchain' as the basis for a Yahoo search, I couldn't find a good symbol to replace it. The most relevant Yahoo page...
...didn't lend itself to a feed, so I added it as a resource link. Another possibility was...
...but the 'Screener' link also had market cap plus a lot more data. I took the top-3 market caps and developed an RSS feed...
to generate news stories on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple. This replaced the BTCS feed I used previously.
08 February 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-01 More++
- 2019-12-24: 10 Best Performing Cryptos of 2019 Not Named Bitcoin • 'In January, the total market capitalization of this burgeoning sector was around $130 billion.'
- 2019-12-27: US Bitcoin Derivatives Market, Highlights of 2019
- 2019-12-28: Around the World in 2019 -- A Landmark Year for Crypto Taxation
- 2019-12-29: Five Countries Where Crypto Regulation Changed the Most in 2019
- 2019-12-30: The Biggest Crypto Winners and Losers of 2019
- 2020-01-02: Privacy Coins in 2019: True Financial Freedom or a Criminal's Delight?
- 2020-01-02: 'Cryptocurrency Will Not Die': Mainstream Media on Bitcoin in 2019
- 2020-01-05: Biggest Crypto Price Movements of 2019 • 'Its biggest 24-hour loss constituting a 10% drop on July 11'; see Bitcoin in the News : 2019-07 Price (August 2019).
- 2020-01-05: Most Significant Hacks of 2019 -- New Record of Twelve in One Year
- 2020-01-05: Who Got Gifts from Crypto Santa in 2019… and Who Got Coal
- 2020-01-13: Lawmakers Finally Took Data Privacy Seriously -- 2019 Regulatory Roundup
Looking at other stories from January, the two most interesting were also from Cointelegraph:-
- 2020-01-15: Bitcoin SV Prices Soar After Craig Wright Complies With Court Order • '[Wright] has received the public keys associated an $8.9 billion crypto fortune called the Tulip Trust'
- 2020-01-18: Bitcoin SV Drops 40% as Lawyer Admits Craig Wright Has No Private Keys
My first reaction to this was 'So what?'. Why should having Bitcoin (BTC) keys make Bitcoin SV (BSV) more valuable? Why should not having the BTC keys make BSV less valuable?
The first story ('Prices Soar') ended, 'With the day’s gains approaching 100%, this has some calling Wright’s tactics a straight-up exit scam.' Then it dawned on me: the larger the capitalization for a cryptocurrency, the more interest it will attract. The more interest it attracts, the more money will flow into the coin, thereby driving prices further. This is entirely in line with the assumption that a coin's price is mainly driven by psychological factors.
Other than the steady rise in price, January was a light month for additional bitcoin news. One more story, more forward looking than the others, is worth mentioning:-
-
2020-01-19:
5 Major Bitcoin Trends To Watch In 2020
- Bitcoin Halving 2020 [May]
- Bitcoin’s Transition to Digital Gold
- Schnorr, Taproot, and Tapscript ['all expected to be included in the same soft-forking upgrade of the Bitcoin network']
- Lightning Network and Liquid Sidechain Adoption
- Institutional Money
There is some jargon in that last story that should be investigated. I'll do that another time.
01 February 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-01 Price
The November chart was the fourth out of five in the second half of the year to show a falling trend. • The December chart shows neither a rising nor a falling trend. It was basically flat.
Then show the Cointelegraph chart from last month. In January, the price was up, up, and away.
Then flag any volumes that stand head-and-shoulders above the others:-
2020-01-08 0000 (cluster peak)
2020-01-14 1600 (cluster peak)
2020-01-30 1600 (small jump)
Because they don't correspond to any sharp change in the price, none of those were typical of recent months. The first two, labelled 'cluster peak', occurred at the end of a multi-day rise in price. The last, 'small jump', occurred in a plateau. Along with the monthly routine being broken, the Cointelegraph Analysis category flagged a couple of longer term trends.
-
2020-01-14:
Crypto Community Eyes US–Iran Crisis As Tensions Flare
•
'For one week, the Iran–United States military crisis gripped the crypto community. It began on Jan. 3 with a U.S. drone strike on a convoy traveling near Baghdad International Airport, killing Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) soared.'
- 2020-01-21: CME's Futures Options Sprinted Out of the Gate but a Marathon Lies Ahead • 'In the two years since it launched cash-settled Bitcoin futures, CME [Chicago Mercantile Exchange] has firmly established itself as a leader in the regulated crypto derivatives space despite not always being the first to market. In December 2017, it launched regulated Bitcoin futures a week after rival exchange CBOE [Chicago Board Options Exchange]. However, it only took 15 months for CBOE to completely withdraw from the market. By August, CME had announced record highs for Bitcoin futures trading. Most recently, Bakkt came into the market ahead of CME with its regulated options on Bitcoin futures. However, after successfully launching its own options contracts on Jan. 13, it seems that the Chicago-based CME is once again emerging at the top of its game.'
A few posts in Cointelegraph's Price Analysis tag confirmed both trends.
-
2020-01-08:
Price Analysis Jan 8: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, EOS, BNB, BSV, XMR, ADA
•
'The crypto markets continue to respond to the events happening in the United States-Iran conflict. Any sign of escalating tensions is boosting the crypto markets higher. Google Trends shows that the searches for terms “Bitcoin” and “Bitcoin Iran” have surged in the past few days. This shows that investors are considering Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, similar to gold.'
-
2020-01-15:
Price Analysis Jan 15: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, TRX, XMR
•
'The crypto space is making a comeback and the rally is being led by altcoins. While several altcoins might participate in the initial rally, we believe that the market will start differentiating between each cryptocurrency based on its fundamentals [?]. Hence, traders should avoid buying the non-performers expecting a repeat of the previous bull market when every altcoin staged a parabolic rally.'
- 2020-01-31: Price Analysis Jan 31: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, ADA, ETC • 'The growing popularity of crypto derivatives indicates institutional players are gradually entering the space. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange group Managing Director and Global Head of Equity Index Alternative Investment Products, Tim McCourt, said: “CME Bitcoin futures have surpassed $100 billion in total notional value [?] traded since their launch in December 2017.”'
The words marked '[?]' require further research. (1) Given that prices are primarily driven by psychology, what are 'altcoin fundamentals'? (2) What is the measure of 'notional value'? I'll take that up some other time.
I don't know if I've mentioned it before, but the ten coins listed in each 'Price Analysis' title are ordered by total market value at the time of the post. The changes from post to post might be worth analyzing. Ditto for the exchanges (currently five) listed near the top of my monthly price chart.
11 January 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2019-12 More++
As I've already noted in several previous posts, the first half of the year showed a rising trend, the second half of the year a falling trend. The two previous years followed a similar pattern for longer periods: 2017 rising [the great bull market], 2018 falling [the great bear market]. The trend is your friend? December [2019-12] was flat.
In last week's post, Bitcoin in the News : 2019-12 Price, I wrote,
I'll come back to [those high-volume periods] when I look at other news sources in next week's '2019-12 More++' post.
***
Later: After updating that post, I was left with a few more December stories worth noting -- all of them somehow negative. For example, two involved Ponzi schemes:-
-
2019-12-11:
Cryptocurrency rocked by massive Bitcoin fraud
(yahoo.com)
•
'US prosecutors have arrested three men while investigating an alleged $722 million Bitcoin scam. The Justice Department has branded the activities of the 'BitClub Network' as a 'high-tech Ponzi scheme' that lured victims with fake Bitcoin mining profits while taking money from investors who were rewarded for recruiting new members.'
- 2019-12-19: That $2B Ponzi scheme caught dumping Bitcoin just moved its $105M Ether stash (thenextweb.com) • 'Just days after cryptocurrency analysts suggested that a $2 billion Chinese Ponzi scheme was stifling Bitcoin‘s price, its enormous Ethereum stash is on the move. [...] Earlier this week, Hard Fork reported that the PlusToken Ponzi scheme had sought to liquidate $2 billion worth of cryptocurrency swindled from unsuspecting investors.'
That second story is badly written and incoherent, but might be worth keeping in mind. The next story, from a veteran bitcoin analyst, is better written.
- 2019-12-21: A U.S. Fed Official Made A 'Significant' Bitcoin Warning (forbes.com) • Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve governor;'One study estimated that more than a quarter of bitcoin users and roughly half of bitcoin transactions, for example, are associated with illegal activity.'
I keep coming back to the same question: Why would an honest person want to mingle with the type of people involved in crypto currencies?
04 January 2020
Bitcoin in the News : 2019-12 Price
The November chart was the fourth out of five in the second half of the year to show a falling trend.
The December chart shows neither a rising nor a falling trend. It was basically flat with some bumps along the way.
As for spikes in volume, three were more significant than the others, where the last two were part of a cluster:-
2019-12-05 1200 (Spike in price)
2019-12-16 1600 (Drop)
2019-12-18 1200 (Jump)
As usual, Cointelegraph's Analysis category had nothing to say about those high-volume periods. For the first time, the service's Price Analysis tag also had nothing to say beyond the analysis of technical patterns. I'll come back to the subject when I look at other news sources in next week's '2019-12 More++' post.
***
Later: Re 'I'll come back to the subject', I found a number of stories in Forbes. The date on the first story ('spike in price') doesn't quite match what I calculated, but that just underscores how unsophisticated my tools are.
-
2019-12-04:
Bitcoin Crashes After Sudden Leap Higher
(forbes.com)
•
'Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, including ethereum, Ripple's XRP, litecoin, and bitcoin cash, have suddenly leaped, with bitcoin rising almost $1,000 in just minutes. [Update:] After suddenly surging, the bitcoin price has given up almost all of its gains, dropping to around $7,200 per bitcoin.'
- 2019-12-04: Bitcoin’s Surge This Morning Shows Market's Vulnerability (ditto) • '"As I write this morning, today's price spike does seem a bit suspicious," said Mati Greenspan, founder of the newsletter Quantum Economics. He pointed to "the sudden movement on an otherwise uneventful day, the low volumes across exchanges, the quick retracement after the move. It all points to the assumption that this was the outcome of a single player with a large buy order. Or in other words... a large whale stacking sats." Tim Enneking, managing director of Digital Capital Management, offered a similar perspective. "With this unusually low volume crypto markets have experienced, any single, large transaction has an [outsize] impact," he stated. "This is true both because the transaction itself will affect markets and because, in the absence of other signals, market watchers overreact to such a transaction and exaggerate the move, regardless of direction," said Enneking.'
A 'large whale stacking sats' makes sense if you know that 'sats' is short for 'satoshis', i.e. the smallest unit of bitcoin. The spike shows how easily the price of bitcoin can be manipulated. Introduce a large transaction into a calm market and watch as other traders react, like dropping a stone into a calm pond and watching the ripples. The next set of stories is from later in the month.
-
2019-12-16:
Bitcoin Moves Sharply Lower Again As Other Major Cryptocurrencies Go Into Free Fall
(forbes.com)
•
'Bitcoin, which yesterday dropped by 3.5%, has moved lower again, dropping over 5% since this time yesterday
[...]
The cause of the sudden sell-off was not immediately clear, however, analysts have noted a drop in crypto market trading volume recently.
[...]
In periods of low trading volume, crypto prices are more vulnerable to so-called whales moving the market by placing massive buy or sell orders at a little above or below current market rates. These can trigger trading algorithms that then send prices sharply higher or lower and can be a sign of market manipulation.'
-
2019-12-18:
Bitcoin Recovers After Falling To Lowest Since May
(ditto)
•
'Bitcoin prices bounced back today, rising more than 10% in a matter of hours after declining to their lowest in more than seven months.
[...]
Some analysts described today’s rally as being purely technical in nature.'
- 2019-12-19: Is This Why Bitcoin Suddenly Rebounded Yesterday? (ditto) • 'Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets suddenly rebounded yesterday, with the bitcoin price climbing back above the psychological $7,000 per bitcoin mark after a sell-off earlier in the week. [...] A report out earlier this month found the cost of creating new bitcoin, a process known as mining, now averages around $6,300 per bitcoin -- something that could mean bitcoin is perhaps unlikely, but not guaranteed, to fall below this level.'
The phrase 'purely technical in nature' is not an explanation. It's an admission of ignorance. On top of that, the last explanation makes no sense to me. Does the price of gold depend on the cost of mining it?
If the price drops too low, miners go out of business, thereby reducing new supply. If the supply drops, the prise will rise -- assuming demand remains steady. Then new miners will start operation. This is necessarily a medium term phenomenon, not something that happens in a few days. Or am I missing something? (It wouldn't be the first time.)