13 October 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-09 More++

In last week's post, Bitcoin in the News : 2018-09 Price, I noted,
None of the stories in Cointelegraph's Analysis category attempted to explain the drop at the beginning of the month.

Here's a similar chart showing just the week when the drop occurred. For the record, 5 September was a Wednesday.

It's not a very good chart. The only prices shown are from the midpoint of each day (noon?, GMT?) and are connected with a straight line. The first story I read about the drop was from CNBC:-

  • 2018-09-05: Bitcoin falls after Goldman reportedly drops crypto trading plans (cnbc.com; 'Published 9:00 AM ET Wed, 5 Sept 2018 Updated 4:50 PM ET Wed, 5 Sept 2018') • 'Bitcoin slipped below $7,000 Wednesday after a report that Goldman Sachs is abandoning plans to open a trading desk for cryptocurrencies. Goldman still sees the regulatory environment as ambiguous, according to Business Insider, which cited people familiar with the matter.'

By coincidence, the second story I read was from Business Insider:-

  • 2018-09-05: Bitcoin price: Cryptocurrencies drop suddenly with no explanation (businessinsider.com; Sep. 5, 2018, 4:09 PM) • 'Cryptocurrency prices plunged across the board suddenly and sharply Wednesday morning, seemingly with no clear reason. Having been steady at about $7,350 a coin during most of trading during both Asian and European morning hours, bitcoin lost more than $200 in mere minutes starting about 5:50 a.m. ET, or 10:50 a.m. BST.'

Both stories, from CNBC and from Business Insider, pointed to another story from Business Insider:-

Note that the 'earlier' story is dated three days after the 'later' stories. There is probably a good explanation for this, but I can't think of one. The CNBC story has a detailed price chart showing a steady price followed by two sharp drops: one just before 6 AM (EDT) and another at 7 PM. It's hard to believe that unconfirmed news about a single trading desk could cause such a sudden price shift, but what do I know? Then there was another sharp drop into the following day. I wonder what caused that.

06 October 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-09 Price

The price chart for September is a bit different than it was for last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2018-08 Price. When I tried to capture the monthly price chart on 1 October, I received only current prices with no chart. When I tried to capture the same chart while preparing this post, I received the normal chart with the first week of September missing, because the monthly chart only goes one month back. The first week of September showed a large price drop, so I couldn't just ignore it. What to do?

Since February, the Cointelegraph price service has offered the possibility of entering a from-to date range. I set this to 1 September through 30 September and received the chart shown below. The data granularity for a specified date range appears to be a full day; the granularity of the monthly chart appears to be six hours. That accounts for the difference in the look of the chart.


Bitcoin Price Index

None of the stories in Cointelegraph's Analysis category attempted to explain the drop at the beginning of the month. Of the 30 or so stories in the category, one in particular caught my attention:-

  • 2018-09-11: The Crypto IPO Race Is On: From Mining Companies to Exchanges • 'Last week, at least two crypto-related enterprises, a Silicon Valley stock and cryptocurrency trading platform Robinhood and Singapore-based crypto exchange Huobi, moved closer to going public by holding an initial public offering (IPO).' The ‘old school’ way to collect investments might seem especially attractive in the context of mass adoption trends and a declining ICO market, which now sees its hardest slump in 16 months.

Using Cointelegraph's tag for technical analysis, Price Analysis, I'll point to a sample article from mid-month:-

The language in that analysis is decidedly negative. In the initial survey, it quotes a sector expert saying,

Bitcoin will resurge in 2019 but altcoins "will never come back."

The phrases 'bearish patterns', 'trend remains down', 'breakdown of the support zone', 'strong downtrend', and 'facing resistance' are used for the first five of the ten cryptocurrencies covered. The mania of 2017 is over.

15 September 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-08 More++

After last month's price news, Bitcoin in the News : 2018-08 Price, what other bitcoin news made the headlines? In the corresponding 'Bitcoin in the News' analysis for July, 2018-07 More++, I featured stories from Forbes. In the analysis for June, 2018-06 More++, the spotlight was on CNBC. If I concentrated on those same sources for August, I would have twice as many stories from Forbes as from CNBC, making Forbes the blue ribbon service for bitcoin reporting and analysis.

For August, I noticed that the word 'scam' showed up in the headline for many stories. [For an explanation of how I choose the stories, see the first post in the series, Bitcoin in the News - June 2015 (December 2015)] The number of days where 'scam' appeared at least once was more than double an average month and beat the previous record, set in March 2017.

Looking closer at the days with 'scam' stories, I discovered that a few of them came from news alerts on the term 'botnet', another topic that I follow regularly. Following is an example of the several stories involving a high tech combination of a cryptocurrency, a botnet, and Twitter.

2018-08-06: Duo Security researchers’ Twitter ‘bot or not’ study unearths crypto botnet (techcrunch.com) • 'A team of researchers at Duo Security has unearthed a sophisticated botnet operating on Twitter -- and being used to spread a cryptocurrency scam. The botnet was discovered during the course of a wider research project to create and publish a methodology for identifying Twitter account automation -- to help support further research into bots and how they operate.' • The report was illustrated by the following graphic. ETH is, of course, Ethereum.



'To celebrate 10,000,000$ worth of ETH transactions
We are giving back to the community with
*** 10,000 ETH giveaway ***
Send 0.5-10 ETH to verify your address, and get 5-100 ETH
back (limit is 100 ETH per address). Fav this tweet when you get yours!'

It's hard to believe that many people would fall for this. It's also hard for cryptocurrency outsiders to believe that so many people would fall for crypto. Greed is a powerful motivator. Following are a few more scams which popped up for August. I'll give enough excerpts to understand how the scams work.

2018-08-13: 22-year-old man loses $24 million worth of bitcoins in apparent scam (mashable.com) • 'In June 2017, Saarimaa was approached by a group who convinced him to send him the bitcoins, the report claims, quoting findings by Thailand's Crime Suppression Division's (CSD), which has been conducting an investigation into the case for six months. Saarimaa believed he was investing in shares of three companies, a casino and a new cryptocurrency called Dragon Coins, but after seeing no returns at all, his business partner Chonnikan Kaeosali filed a complaint to the CSD. As it turned out, the group converted the bitcoins into Thai currency, deposited it into accounts belonging to seven suspects, and spent some of it on plots of land.'

2018-08-23: US Federal Trade Commission Issues Warning on Bitcoin Blackmail Scam ‘Targeting Men’ (cointelegraph.com) • 'The Division of Consumer and Business Education of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) published an article August 21 titled "How to avoid a Bitcoin blackmail scam." The FTC’s letter focuses on consumer protection, in what it calls a "new scam targeting men," warning about blackmailing scams demanding payments in Bitcoin (BTC). The brief letter states: "Here’s how it works. Scammers have been sending letters to men, demanding payments using [B]itcoin in exchange for keeping quiet about alleged affairs. The letter also explains how to use [B]itcoin to make the payment."'

2018-08-26: Indian Authorities Nab High-Profile Bitcoin Scammers (bitcoinist.com) • 'One common thing promised to all the investors was that they would be getting 10 percent returns on their total investments for the period of next 18 months. One of the accused is a motivator who encouraged and inspired the investors to put their money into Bitcoin. Initially, some of the investors also started getting some returns, which gave them false assurance that their money was safe.'

2018-08-27: 'Wolf of Wall Street' warns investors of the next big trap: Bitcoin (cnbc.com) • 'Former penny-stock broker Jordan Belfort spent nearly two years in prison for scamming investors. Bitcoin, he has no doubt, is the next trap that could leave some retail investors penniless. "I was a scammer. I had it down to science, and it's exactly what's happening with bitcoin," he told CNBC in a documentary airing Monday. "The whole thing is so stupid, these kids have gotten themselves so brainwashed."'

Greed, gullibility, and high technology. That's all it takes to fall victim to a scam. There were several other stories that could have been featured in this post. I'll give two, one each from CNBC and Forbes. Both appeared around the time of the low point in the August price.

I have other August stories on my short list that contradict both of the above. When all is said and done, we're on our own with our beliefs.

08 September 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-08 Price

For the third consecutive month, lack of time -- i.e. vacation! -- prevents me from posting a full report on last month's bitcoin price movements. Just like last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2018-07 Price, I'll have to settle for the usual price chart and reduced commentary.

The month showed an asymmetric 'V' shape. The price declined during the first few weeks, hit a monthly bottom around $6000, then increased during the last few weeks.


Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

As for the associated commentary, the last time I attempted anything was Bitcoin in the News : 2018-05 Price. The first part was a look at Cointelegraph's Analysis category. The second part was a separate look at the category's articles on technical analysis, which disappeared that month.

This month I discovered that the technical analysis has been available all along via the Price Analysis tag. Every article also has further tags for the individual cryptocoins included in the analysis. It would be worth the time to look at those tags to understand how the Cointelegraph site is structured.

11 August 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-07 More++

After seeing the chart of bitcoin's price movements in July, Bitcoin in the News : 2018-07 Price, what sort of stories accompanied those movements? Last month, in Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 More++, I tracked the month using a single news source, CNBC. This month I could have done the same, but I noticed that another source, Forbes, was getting even more attention from my aggregator, Google News.

Here are the Forbes.com stories I collected for my short list, although I easily had more than double this number available from Forbes. Most of the other Forbes stories were of the type 'bitcoin will go {up/down/sideways : choose a direction}'.

Of those stories, increasing power consumption and the Russian indictments were reported on by a number of other news outlets. Two other stories also attracted wider interest than other stories:-

As I write this, the price of bitcoin has dropped back into the low $6000s. I'll cover that in next month's Bitcoin in the News.

04 August 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-07 Price

Just like last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 Price, this month's price post is bare bones. After two months in a downtrend, bitcoin headed upwards in July.


Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

And once again, I'll have to defer a discussion of the related Analysis -- see Bitcoin in the News : 2018-05 Price, ('the other stalwart of these monthly '20YY-MM Price' posts') for the most recent example. NB: Another note in that '2018-05 Price' post mentioned,

As for [...] the Cointelegraph technical analysis, the articles stopped appearing end-April. That's a pity, because I was just starting to get a feel for cryptocoin technicals.

I just noticed that these are now on the 'Price Index' page.

14 July 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 More++

Like my previous post, Bitcoin in the News : 2018-06 Price, this current post is abbreviated because of vacation. After all, what's more important : (free) time or (free) money? If the essence of the previous post was 'searching for salvation'...
Odd numbered month down, even numbered month up? [...] The month of June was even numbered, but there weren't even a handful of days that could be considered up. Abandon hope all ye who have entered here?

...then the essence of the current post is 'searching for a bottom'. For example:-

That happens to be the first bitcoin article flagged by my Google news service in June. It also happens to be the first of many articles from CNBC flagged in June. Let's look at some of the others.

'Is a bottom. Not a bottom. Might be a bottom.' • That last story ('slumps to November lows') says we haven't seen a bottom. Last year the talk was about bubbles; this year it's about bottoms.