Recapping the price analysis in
Bitcoin in the News : 2020-02 Price,
In January, the price was up, up, and away. [In February], that trend continued until mid-month, then reversed direction.
In March, the downtrend continued. From a peak of US$ 9000, the bitcoin price fell to US$ 5000, before recovering to US$ 6000.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index
Comparing the '2020-02 Price' chart, note the loss of most price sources in the current chart. They were restored sometime after I took the snapshot. Although there were a half-dozen instances of high volume, for this post I'll concentrate on a one week period covering the slide from US$ 9000 to 5000:-
2020-03-07 16:00 peak for month
2020-03-12 00:00 start of slide
2020-03-13 00:00 end of slide
I found two relevant stories in Cointelegraph's
Analysis
category. Both attributed the decline to the general panic in worldwide markets:-
-
2020-03-14:
Bitcoin Price Correlates With Traditional Assets, but Not Entirely
•
'Following the World Health Organization's recent declaration of the novel coronavirus pandemic on March 11 with the independent research body citing 118,000 cases and more than 4,000 deaths globally this rosy picture seems to have reversed almost overnight. Additionally, ever since news of the medical emergency went live, markets all over the world began to crash at an unprecedented rate, with powerhouse economies such as Australia and India already gearing up for a period of heavy recession.'
-
2020-03-14:
BTC Plunge, YouTube Ban & Other Challenges: Bad Crypto News of the Week
•
'Bitcoin has been on a downward streak for the last week, down around 15 percent over the last seven days. That's bad but it could be worse. You might have put your money in stocks. Some people, though, remain optimistic.'
The theory of bitcoin as a 'safe haven' was thereby thoroughly debunked. That second story, 'Bad Crypto News of the Week', is an ongoing theme. I noted three other stories on the same theme over the past month (or so):-
Finally, here are the relevant stories from Cointelegraph's
Price Analysis
tag. The quotes are from the tag's index page:-
-
2020-03-06:
Price Analysis Mar 6: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK
•
'Several cryptocurrencies have broken out of their first resistance levels, which suggests that the bulls might be back in the game.'
-
2020-03-09:
Price Analysis Mar 9: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK
•
'The crypto markets have turned down sharply over the weekend and are threatening to wipe out all the gains made in 2020.'
-
2020-03-12:
Price Analysis Mar 12: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK
•
'The crypto markets are currently facing a strong wave of selling leading traders to focus on whether cryptocurrencies will form panic bottoms soon.'
-
2020-03-13:
Price Analysis Mar 13: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LEO
•
'The crypto markets are attempting a relief rally but are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This shows that selling is not over yet.'
-
2020-03-16:
Price Analysis Mar 16: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LEO
•
'The crypto markets are showing some buying at lower levels, which is a positive sign as it shows that investors are accumulating on dips'
Each of those stories starts with 4-5 paragraphs of analysis relating the crypto market to global trends. Examples (the italics are mine):-
2020-03-06:
'Roughly 42% of the total Bitcoin supply has not moved in the past two years. This shows that the investors are holding on to their Bitcoin as they expect the price to rally further.'
2020-03-09:
'Although Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped about 26% from its highs, it is still up about 7% year-to-date. This shows that it is outperforming both equity and oil markets.'
2020-03-12:
'Volatility has spiked to levels not seen since the last financial crisis. This shows that fear has gripped the traders and they are likely to sell everything at hand. Even gold sold off today.'
All of those trends probably lasted no longer than the time it took to write the analysis. 'This shows that' fuzzy thinking is the norm for bitcoin believers.
