Now that I understand that Bitcoin Cash is a new cryptocoin, I can return to the August price analysis for good old bitcoin. I'll do that in my next post.
That '2017-08 Price' post included a chart of the month's bitcoin price movement. It can also be explained verbally:-
Bitcoin started the month around $2800, climbed steadily in price, and ended the month around $4800. That made for a 70% upward movement in price during a single month.
Like many people, I've been interested in investing since I first started working full time and there is a good adjective for that sort of price climb: 'Extraordinary!' What do the price analysts at Cointelegraph.com say about this? Here's an example from the first week of the month:-
- 2017-08-06: Bitcoin Weekly Price Analysis: July 29 - August 6 • 'On Aug. 1 Bitcoin was traded in the long-term $3,000 channel. Technically, the movement needed a pullback, as it had larger scale resistance. The fork resulted in the instant correction for Bitcoin price. The buyers’ prevailed, which is proved by the purchase volumes. There was also an attempt to form a reversal down at the peak of the correction. But you need to remember, that a reversal shatters the previous trend. Price movement is the result of the market demand and supply. So for a reversal, the demand volumes at the correction peak need to be at least equal to the ones, formed previously at this level.'
Some keywords: channel, pullback, resistance, correction, reversal. This is technical analysis, which means looking at psychological factors rather than fundamental values. It's also poorly written: "buyers’ prevailed", why the apostrophe?; "equal to the ones, formed previously", why the comma? The first sentence in the article was:-
Exchanges are announcing to allow the Bitcoin Cash deposits and withdrawal, which caused Bitcoin Cash price fall.
Although I think I understand what the writer wanted to say, it wasn't said very well. And why should announcing the possibility of deposits and withdrawals cause a price to fall? I'm not picking on this particular writer; other articles published during the month were comparable: poorly written psychological analysis. On top of this, the Cointelegraph price analysis was loaded with predictions:-
- 2017-08-06: Road to $10,000: How Bitcoin Price Broke $3,000 and What’s Ahead
- 2017-08-14: Is Bitcoin on Its Way to $5000, and Should You Invest or Stay Away from Bitcoin?
- 2017-08-18: Not Bubble - Bitcoin Growing Up, Heading to $10,000: Dave Chapman
- 2017-08-22: Each Bitcoin Could Be Worth $619,047 in 10 Years: Forbes Contributor
Pick a price, any price? No one can convince me that we're looking at serious analysis here.
After 'Bitcoin Cash' and the bitcoin price rise, what other bitcoin stories were in the news in August? Here are an even handful, all of them from the last days of the month:-
- 2017-08-23: Bitcoin Transactions Aren’t as Anonymous as Everyone Hoped (technologyreview.com; MIT) • 'Web merchants routinely leak data about purchases. And that can make it straightforward to link individuals with their Bitcoin purchases, say cybersecurity researchers.'
- 2017-08-24: Bitcoin miners are making a killing in transaction fees (businessinsider.com) • 'Every time a miner unlocks a bitcoin block, vis-a-vis mining, all the transactions on that block are processed. The miner, in return for his hard work, is rewarded with 12.5 bitcoins for unlocking the block. They also get to keep the transaction fees bitcoin holders pay when they transact with the cryptocurrency'
- 2017-08-26: Chinese Producer Embeds Bitcoin Mining Chips In Household Appliances (cointelegraph.com) • 'Chinese electrical appliances manufacturer, the Midea Group, has filed a patent for a technique for mining Bitcoin using household products.'
- 2017-08-29: Dark web finds bitcoin increasingly more of a problem than a help, tries other digital currencies (cnbc.com) • 'Blockchain Intelligence Group, estimates that illegal transactions in bitcoin have fallen from about half of total volume to about 20 percent last year.'
- 2017-08-30: In Santa Barbara, An Annual Event Brings Together Those Closest To Bitcoin's Roots (forbes.com) • 'Crypto 2017, a conference sponsored by the International Association for Cryptographic Research'
That second-to-last story -- 'illegal transactions in bitcoin have fallen' -- might be because volumes of legal transactions have increased. It might also be because growing interest in bitcoin means growing scrutiny. In last month's post, Bitcoin in the News : 2017-07 More++, I noted, 'No Bitcoin in the News would be complete without mainstream press reports on the dark side of bitcoin'. This month, I didn't detect any such reports. What will September bring?
