Bitcoin in the News : 2017-10 More++

Continuing with Bitcoin in the News : 2017-10 Price, before I get to the rest of the news from October, I have to look after my own affairs. A few weeks ago I received an email from Coinbase, saying,

We wanted to remind you that the upcoming Bitcoin Segwit2x fork is projected to take place on November 16 and will result in two bitcoin blockchains.

This reminded me that two months ago, in Bitcoin [Cash] in the News : 2017-08 Price, I wrote,

Since I'm a Coinbase user, the Bitcoin Cash fork doesn't affect me (at least for now).

For this next fork, I had to pay more attention. The latest Coinbase email linked to two more resources, both dated 24 October:-

• Clarification on the upcoming Segwit2x Fork (blog.coinbase.com), and
• Bitcoin Segwit2x Fork FAQ (support.coinbase.com)

The 'Clarification' link led to a previous blog post, Timeline and Support - Bitcoin Segwit2x and Bitcoin Gold, which informed,

The Bitcoin Gold fork is projected to take place on 23 October. [...] The Bitcoin Segwit2x fork is projected to take place on 16 November.

As you might expect, the news from October carried further reports about these two events. The first event occurred in October:-

• 2017-10-25: 'Bitcoin Gold' price plunges: What you need to know about the hard fork (cnbc.com) • 'The price of bitcoin gold plunged over 66 percent since it started trading. Experts are divided on whether the bitcoin split is a good or bad move.'

The second event will happen in a few days:-

• 2017-10-07: Bitcoin Exchanges Coinbase, Bitfinex Issue Guidance Before SegWit2X Hard Fork (cointelegraph.com)
• 2017-10-14: Bitcoin’s Big Compromise Is Unravelling ['As a Contentious Upgrade Threatens to Split the Network'] (fortune.com) • 'On Thursday, major Bitcoin network operator (or 'mining pool') F2Pool formally withdrew its support for the next stage of a planned Bitcoin upgrade known as SegWit2x. Yesterday, Hong Kong Bitcoin exchange BitMEX did the same.'
• 2017-10-19: Hard Times For Bitcoin Forks As Whalepool Traders Say No To SegWit2x (cointelegraph.com)

The two forks focused attention on a question that has been in the back of my mind for some time now: how to value bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency)?

• 2017-10-06: Bitcoin Metric Doesn't Lie, But It Obfuscates (bloomberg.com) • 'The metric is called the network value-to-transaction ratio, or NVT. Some have dubbed it bitcoin's P/E. And, at least in the community, it's becoming something of an industry standard valuation metric. [...] It's based on bitcoin use, not just its wild price swings. [...] On Wednesday, bitcoins had a network value, that is the total value of all bitcoins, of nearly $70.2 billion, and $591 million daily in transactions, for a NVT of nearly 119.'
• 2017-10-24: NYU's 'dean of valuation' says can't 'value' bitcoin, only trade it (cnbc.com) • 'New York University professor of corporate finance and valuation Aswath Damodaran argues that bitcoin is a currency, but it is still not that practical for transactions. [...] Wall Street's "dean of valuation" said Tuesday that bitcoin's price could be justified if it is widely usable as a currency for daily transactions.'
• 2017-10-28: How Bitcoin Forks Influence Bitcoin Price Rise and Fall (cointelegraph.com) • 'Preparing for the fork' & 'What happens when a chain forks'

There were other stories that would be worth reporting in a normal month, but I'll stop here. The Segwit2x fork is roiling markets as I write this and all else appears to be secondary.

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-10 Price

In last month's post, Bitcoin in the News : 2017-09 Price, I wrote, 'I must remember to prepare the chart on the first of the month rather than for the first post'. In this I was successful. In the previous month's post, Bitcoin [Cash] in the News : 2017-08 Price, I wrote of the monthly chart, 'The following chart might be captioned, "Straight Up!".' The same goes for the current month's chart. In trying to understand why it went straight up, I was unsuccessful.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

As in previous months, let's look for clues to the price action in Cointelegraph's Bitcoin Price Analysis (BPA).

• 2017-10-03: Why is Bitcoin Price Slow to Pick Back up to $5,000? • 'Bitcoin price continues to increase in the stock market and remains on course to reach the $4,500 level after falling below $3,000 due to the regulatory campaign by China against cryptocurrencies'
• 2017-10-10: Bitcoin Price Flash Crashes As Russia Proposes Crypto Exchange Ban • 'Russia’s central bank is planning to ban access to Bitcoin exchange websites, it was announced by Sergei Shvetsov, the first deputy governor at the Russian central bank. This announcement had a severe effect on the Bitcoin price that was rallying towards $5,000. In a flash crash, Bitcoin’s value dropped by $600 before rebounding somewhat.'
• 2017-10-10: 4 Things That Can Push Bitcoin Price to $5,000 and Beyond • The return of the buzz; Financial crisis; Wall Street stamp of approval; Free money ('At the end of October there is another fork coming to Bitcoin in the form of Bitcoin Gold').
• 2017-10-29: Price Analysis, October 28: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin • 'The number of hedge funds which exclusively trade digital currencies has grown to 120, with about $2.3 bln in total assets under management, according to the financial research firm Autonomous Next.'

Most of the BPA articles were of the type in that last bullet. They show short-term charts of each of the mentioned cryptocurrencies, along with a technical analysis of the price action (resistance & support levels, that sort of thing) indicated by the charts. I don't recall ever seeing anything like a fundamental analysis and don't know if it's even possible. Is the price of bitcoin++ driven entirely by market psychology?