13 January 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-12 More++

After posting last week's Bitcoin in the News : 2017-12 Price, and before looking at other news from December, I put together the following composite chart. It shows the graphs from all 12 of the '2017-NN Price' posts I wrote over the past year. The links to the individual posts are on the right sidebar. Exactly six of the 12 months (two per row) showed a steady upward trend during the course of the month.

After the price rise, the other story is in the volumes. Daily volumes in the range of 150.000.000 (units?) in January increased to a handful of days over 3.000.000.000 (ditto) in December. That's a 20-fold increase in volume, which roughly tracks the price rise over the same period. The price of bitcoin increased because interest increased, but the available quantity increased only modestly.

The increase in popular interest saw a corresponding increase in articles aimed at newcomers. Take, for example, Bitcoin: Seven questions you were too embarrassed to ask (arstechnica.com). It showed up in my news feed on 3 December, but is currently dated 22 December. The seven questions are:-

1) What's a bitcoin?
2) If Bitcoins aren't tied to a conventional currency, how did they get so valuable?
3) Why would I want to use bitcoin?
4) If Bitcoin has few practical applications, how can it be worth $200 billion?
5) OK, I'm sold. How do I get some?
6) I just made a killing! How do I cash out?
7) Is it true that Bitcoin wastes a ton of energy?

Here are a few more introductory articles that I picked at random. There were more to choose from:-

Last month I wrote another post, Bitcoin Futures, about the start of trading on the CBOE. Here are two more articles from mainstream sources, of which there were again many:-

As for other stories, contrasting news on the two Koreas is worth watching:-

Also relevant, because Coinbase holds my wallet:-

Some short takes from the article:-

Coinbase, the most popular U.S. crypto-currency exchange, released "Bitcoin Cash" -- a new currency created this summer and currently worth around $3,000 -- into many customer accounts on Tuesday evening. [...] While the arrival of Bitcoin Cash amounts to a windfall for Coinbase customer, it also has the potential to create a nightmare when it comes to dealing with the IRS.

For the Coinbase.com announcement, see Buy, sell, send and receive Bitcoin Cash on Coinbase. This is the fourth cryptocurrency in my account, after Buying Bitcoins (August 2015), Buying Ethereum (December 2016), and Bitcoin in the News : 2017-07 More++ (August 2017; Litecoin).

I can't let a month go by without at least one article on each of two related bitcoin topics: its value and its bubble.

The NYT Shiller article says,

One narrative that seeks to explain the price increases this year is that they have something to do with the difficulty of betting against -- making short sales of -- Bitcoin. Absent the opportunity to engage in short sales, "smart money" can only watch from the sidelines while prices soar.

I also like that word 'dabbling'. In for a penny, in for a pound? No, I'm in for a penny. The first and last time I was in Las Vegas I played a slot machine with nickels and won a whole bucket of them.

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06 January 2018

Bitcoin in the News : 2017-12 Price

The bitcoin price action for the month of December showed a different pattern than in last month's post, Bitcoin in the News : 2017-11 Price, or in any previous month in 2017. It looks like the cross section of a mountain range, with ever-higher/ever-lower peaks and valleys on either side of the monster mountain in the middle. Is this an example of what market technicians call a head-and-shoulders formation?


Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

Once again, I'll rely on Cointelegraph's Bitcoin Price Analysis for an explanation of the key movements in the chart. The month splits easily into three parts: a rise at the beginning, a peak in the middle, and a fall at the end. Here are some stories from the first part of the month:-

And here are a couple of stories from mid-month. Any market peak is only apparent after the fact.

The price at the end of the month was unpredictable and volatile.

As usual, we don't know what will happen next. Since many pundits are expecting more of the same -- unpredictable and volatile -- the bitcoin market might surprise everyone by being predictable and flat. Anyone who prefers unpredictable and choppy can focus on another crypto-currency. There are plenty to choose from.

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