Exactly six of the 12 months (two per row) showed a steady upward trend during the course of the month.
None of the 12 months looked anything like the chart for January, which shows a steady downward trend during the course of the month.
Before moving to an analysis of the price, I'll mention a few changes to the look of the chart. First, it uses a different color. In changing from green to yellow, are we imagining a traffic light? Next stop: red? Second, the upper right corner used to say 'Price Index'; now it says 'The Future of Money'. Floating over this particular chart, the irony isn't even subtle. Cointelegraph's Bitcoin Price Analysis threw up some unusual stories for the month.
- 2018-01-03: Peter Thiel’s VC Fund Invests Millions Into Bitcoin, Market Reacts • 'The Fund reportedly invested $15-20 million into Bitcoin, which has grown into hundreds of millions in the past year. [...] The WSJ report was unclear on whether or not Founders had sold any of its holdings to date.'
- 2018-01-12: Is Bitcoin’s Value Due to Social Status it Brings? • 'It makes perfect sense to want to own something that is has increased in value 13-fold in the last year, but is part of Bitcoin’s value due to the social status it brings?'
On that first story, it's not clear when the fund bought bitcoin (although it was some time ago), what price it paid, or whether any was sold. 'Market Reacts' ... with a yawn? On that second story, they're kidding, right? Both of these stories are grasping at straws when the overall trend is depressing.
In a rising market, every participant is a genius. In a falling market, everyone is a potential scapegoat.
- 2018-01-18: GDAX Starts BCH Trading, Users Angry About Focus • 'The addition of BCH on GDAX follows the addition of the hard fork coin on the Coinbase site, which saw the price of BCH rocket to new all time highs. While Coinbase owns GDAX, they are not the same entity. [...] However, the cryptocurrency community was not particularly thrilled with the news, given the slowness of GDAX to implement the SegWit protocol.'
- 2018-01-24: Why are Potential Forks not Accounted into the Bitcoin Futures Price • 'New Bitcoin forks became a sensitive issue after CME launched Bitcoin future contracts. Their average price does not include new offsprings as CME has no fork policy yet.'
- 2018-01-25: What the FUD? Bitcoin Market Beset by January Woes • 'It has been a depressing fortnight for anybody reading various mainstream headlines touting the ‘end of Bitcoin’ and the arrival of the ‘crypto bubble’ crash. Unsurprisingly, the most recent cryptocurrency market slump has led to naysayers stepping onto their soapboxes, crying out messages of ‘I told you so’.'
That last story mentions South Korea, UBS at Davos, and potential regulations esp. in China. None of these is a game changer, but when the herd is nervous, any noise might cause a stampede. The January chart shows a mid-month decline from $14K to $10K over a couple of days, accompanied by high volumes. Let's call this 'rushing for the exit'. What will happen if a genuine panic arises?
The last story will certainly come up for next month's '2018-02 Price' post. I'll mention it here, because it's a recurring theme and because the FUD acronym is mentioned again.
- 2018-02-02: Finding a Price: Why is Bitcoin Worth What it is? • 'Bitcoin price, as any investor knows, can move in the blink of an eye. It can go from $20,000 to the half of it in a few weeks, and Bitcoin is on a constant rollercoaster of price discovery. This leaves many asking what determines the price of this digital currency, especially for an intangible asset that exists only on the Internet.'
As for FUD, see Fear, uncertainty and doubt (wikipedia.org).
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