If the first week of February looked like a continuation of January ('a steady downward trend during the course of the month'), then the rest of the month looked more like a typical month in 2017.
The month of March saw a resumption of that 'steady downward trend'.
In last year's '2017-01 Price' post, I started using Cointelegraph's Bitcoin Price Analysis (BPA) as a source for news on price movements. Of the 19 stories in the category for March 2018, five were non-routine:-
- 2018-03-02: IOTA: Weekly Price Analysis • 'IOTA is the tenth largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. While a few coins in the top 10 are attempting to recover from their recent lows, IOTA continues to struggle. The ugly spat between the IOTA team and a group of external security researchers is not helping matters either.'
- 2018-03-12: Goldman Sachs: Bitcoin 'Has Potential' To Drop Below February Low Of $5,922 • '[Sheba] Jafari, the head of technical strategy at Goldman Sachs, is known for criticizing Bitcoin.'
- 2018-03-19: BTC, ETH Recover From Monthly Lows On Comments To G20 Members • 'The crypto markets are in the green again after hitting monthly lows this week [...] following the Bank of England’s positive comments to G20 members that crypto poses "no risk" to the stability of the global economy.'
- 2018-03-22: Bitcoin Loses $9k Support After Binance Confusion Shakes Confidence • 'A controversial regulatory problem at cryptocurrency exchange Binance unsettled markets [...] news involving Binance and Japanese regulators sent prices tumbling'. [First mention of 'Binance' on this blog]
- 2018-03-26: Crypto Market In The Red, Bitcoin Falls Below $8,000, Ethereum Dips Below $500
The 14 'routine' BPA stories (although there's nothing routine about cryptocurrencies) were of the type I mentioned in last month's '2018-02 Price' post. There I wrote,
Most BPA articles discuss technical analysis and I should look at those in depth in one of my posts.
Where to start? I picked two BPA articles from mid-month:-
- 2018-03-15: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Stellar, Litecoin, Cardano, NEO, EOS: Price Analysis, March 14
- 2018-03-16: [Ditto]: Price Analysis, March 16
Both articles are structured similarly. First, there is a summary of news that might affect the price of cryptocurrencies.
[1st link:] 'Google has followed Facebook in banning cryptocurrency-related advertising. While this is definitely not good news for ICO campaigns that rely heavily on marketing, this is unlikely to hurt the prospects of the coins backed by strong technical fundamentals.'
[2nd link:] 'Fundstrat's Thomas Lee believes that Bitcoin mining is an unprofitable venture at current prices. A model developed by his data science team has pegged the breakeven price at $8,038. If prices fall further, the miners will start to lose money on their operations.'
This is followed by a chart and verbal analysis of the cryptocurrencies mentioned in the corresponding headline: BTC [i.e. BTC/USD; almost all prices are pegged to the U.S. dollar], ETH, BCH, XRP [Ripple], XLM [Stellar], LTC [Litecoin], ADA [Cardano, pegged to BTC, i.e. 'ADA/BTC'], NEO, EOS. Some of these I had never heard of before.
The technical analysis of a market is essentially an attempt to understand the human psychology driving that market. Considering that cryptocurrencies have almost no intrinsic value, there is undoubtedly a wealth of knowledge to be gained from these analyses. How to continue?
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