For the fourth straight month [...] I can use the same observation: the market is in a state of equilibrium, then something happens -- always accompanied by significant volume -- to move it quickly to another state of equilibrium.
September saw two distinct states of equilibrium separated by a sharp drop.
The drop started roughly at
2019-09-24 0000, i.e. around midnight on 09-23
and lasted about a day. As usual, Cointelegraph's Analysis category had nothing to say about the drop, but the service's Price Analysis tag had an article before the move signalling the 'long-awaited launch of Bakkt':-
2019-09-23: Price Analysis 23/09: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, EOS, BNB, BSV, XLM, ADA • 'If Bitcoin prices plunge and start a down move, altcoins are unlikely to run in the opposite direction to start a new uptrend. But if Bitcoin remains range-bound or starts a new up-move, then select altcoins are likely to continue their outperformance.'
The next 'Price Analysis' article was after the drop:-
2019-09-25: Price Analysis 25/09: BTC, ETH, XRP, [...] • 'The total cryptocurrency market capitalization had repeatedly taken support close to the $250 billion mark since mid-July of this year. However, the recent collapse in crypto markets led by Bitcoin (BTC) has broken the support and market capitalization has dipped to just under $220 billion. It is difficult to pinpoint the exact reason that started the fall. A few speculators might have built up positions expecting the prices to surge following the launch of Bakkt. However, when that did not play out, they started closing their trades in a hurry. As a result, important support levels cracked and the rest of the traders were forced to close their long positions. Another possibility is that the flight to safety following the news of an impeachment inquiry into United States President Donald Trump might have resulted in the quick drop.'
I don't believe for a second that the Trump impeachment inquiry had any impact on the bitcoin price -- why should it? -- so Bakkt deserves real consideration. Before looking at that, I'll interject the next 'Price Analysis' article, which summarizes the psychology around bitcoin trading:-
2019-09-27: Price Analysis 27/09: BTC, ETH, XRP, [...] • 'When Bitcoin (BTC) rallies sharply it does not leave a chance to buy. Traders then regret missing the bus. They promise themselves that they will buy on the next dip. However, when the prices correct, fear grips the traders and they again miss pulling the trigger. While there will be many reasons for a fall, unless the basic fundamental reason changes, traders should continue to look for buying opportunities.'
That analysis assumes that after a drop the next trigger will signal a rise, but it's more likely a 50-50 chance of a rise or a fall. Anyway, let's get back to Bakkt. This time Cointelegraph's 'Analysis' category had a relevant piece:-
2019-09-27: First Week of Bakkt: Slow Start Unlikely to Dampen Long-Term Prospects • 'After more than a year spent ensuring full compliance with the United States authorities, Bakkt, the first federally regulated platform for Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading, launched on September 23.'
Is that date, September 23, a coincidence? The article's next paragraph explained the Bakkt concept.
Conceived by the global trading giant Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and counting a solid portfolio of investors from Microsoft’s venture fund M12 to Starbucks as its backers, Bakkt offers institutional traders something brand new. The platform’s value proposition is physically-settled BTC futures contracts, combined with a sound custodial service approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Unfortunately, 'trading volumes on the platform remain meager', and
Bakkt’s launch coincided with an immense slump in Bitcoin’s market price, leading some analysts to suspect a causal connection between the two.
'Causal connection' or not, the service's web site Bakkt.com ('Building the future of digital asset infrastructure'), points to a Bakkt blog post, We have liftoff: a milestone for the industry (medium.com), signed by its CEO Kelly Loeffler. For more about the service, see What is Bakkt? (coindesk.com).
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