Bitcoin in the News : 2019-08 Price

Last month's price chart bears some resemblance to the previous month, as seen in Bitcoin in the News : 2019-07 Price. The trend is strong after the start of the month, declines into mid-month, and flattens in the second half of the month. The monthly high in July was 1000 USD above the high in August, while the monthly lows were about the same.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

Another distinguishing factor in August was the number of volume spikes. I count six, where the top four are shown in the following table. The second and third occurred a half-day apart, so I'll treat them as a single spike.

2019-08-07 12:00
2019-08-14 16:00)
2019-08-15 04:00)
2019-08-28 16:00

As usual, Cointelegraph's Analysis category had nothing to offer on price movements -- either those listed above or any other. In a directionless period, what is there to say?

I also looked at pairs of reports under the site's Price Analysis tag -- one before and one after each of the three distinct volume spikes identified above. There was nothing about the associated price movements. For the first time I noticed that volumes aren't taken into account for the technical analysis used in the reports.

The upshot of all this is that I have nothing special to talk about this month. There was one change worth noting. The price chart for August shows two fewer exchanges than the chart in July: from seven exchanges to five. Binance and Okex are missing.

Bitcoin in the News : 2019-07 More++

Just like last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2019-06 More++, this month's edition is late, although for a different reason. I'll use the same technique as last month, concentrating on stories from Forbes.com, where I found 32 stories in July.

Since this month's price post, Bitcoin in the News : 2019-07 Price, had a focus on regulatory trends, Facebook's Libra in particular, I narrowed the Forbes stories to those centered on regulatory issues. Here I found eight stories.

• 2019-07-02: The Overlooked Reason The United States Would Struggle To Ban Bitcoin • 'free speech'
• 2019-07-07: New ECB Boss Christine Lagarde Made A Serious Bitcoin Warning • 'cryptocurrencies are "shaking the system" -- something that could signal a change in the ECB's approach'
• 2019-07-11: Blow To Bitcoin As Fed Chair Jerome Powell Issues Stark Facebook Warning • 'the Facebook Libra project "cannot go forward" until "serious concerns" are addressed'
• 2019-07-13: Donald Trump Just Made Bitcoin A 2020 Election Issue • 'Trump unleashed a scathing attack on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, branding them "unregulated crypto assets" and based on "thin air"'
• 2019-07-15: Donald Trump Gave Bitcoin A Boost, But The Presidential Spotlight Could Prove Harsh For Crypto
• 2019-07-16: Why Big Governments And Central Banks Want To Kill Libra And Bitcoin
• 2019-07-21: Bitcoin, XRP, And LTC Prices Recover After Tumbling On Libra Hearings, What's Next?
• 2019-07-29: Australian Draft Bill Illustrates Bullish Case For Bitcoin Price • 'limit tax evasion and general criminal activity'

I hope the 2019-08 'More++' post will be on time.

Bitcoin in the News : 2019-07 Price

July was the first month of 2019's second half and the first down month since January.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

There were several small, sharp drops and jumps during the month, so let's use volume to select periods for further investigation. The three highest volumes of the month were:-

2019-07-10 12:00 -
2019-07-16 16:00 -
2019-07-18 12:00 +

Cointelegraph's Analysis category had commentary related to the second of those surges in volume. This was followed by a second story on the same subject.

2019-07-16: Bitcoin Below $10,000, Down 26.6% in 7 Days: What Caused the Pullback? • 'The change in sentiment around the crypto market following the remarks of President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin, as well as bearish technical indicators, are considered to be the major factors behind Bitcoin’s most recent correction.'

2019-07-18: Trump Tweets Crypto Rant -- What Is the Bitcoin Reference Really About? • 'Many in the crypto community came to suspect that the tweets were not Trump’s own. [...] "This is more likely coming from the Treasury Department -- that’d be Secretary Mnuchin -- and at the behest in particular of the banks."'

One of Trump/Mnuchin's targets was Facebook's forthcoming currency, Libra. Another Cointelegraph article offered a summary of current concerns about Libra.

2019-07-11: Top-6 Issues Experts/Entities Have With Libra | Cointelegraph
- U.S. lawmakers are skeptical of Libra
- History of Facebook scandals
- Libra security risks
- Lack of censorship resistance
- Libra is not a real blockchain
- Libra may not really help the unbanked

Cointelegraph's Price Analysis tag had nothing special to say about the peaks in volume. One report placed Trump's tweet after the slide had started. Two others focused on Libra.

2019-07-12: Price Analysis 12/07: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, EOS, BNB, BSV, TRX, XLM • 'President Donald Trump bashed both Facebook’s Libra and Bitcoin in a series of tweets on July 11. However, the interesting thing is that unlike the U.S. stock markets, which respond sharply to Trump’s tweets, the crypto universe was unaffected.'

2019-07-17: Price Analysis 17/07: BTC, ETH, XRP, [...] • 'While Libra might dent sentiment in the short term, it is unlikely to change the long-term trend in Bitcoin that is buoyed by fundamentals.'

2019-07-19: Price Analysis 19/07: BTC, ETH, XRP, [...] • 'The bashing of Libra continues, with G7 finance ministers warning that if the project is not regulated tightly, it can upset the global financial system. '

All in all, not a convincing month. We might have to wait until the summer is over to see if the upward trend in the first half will continue.

Bitcoin in the News : 2019-06 More++

Although the past month's chart, Bitcoin in the News : 2019-06 Price, was posted more-or-less on time, this current post is being posted much later. Blame summer vacation.

To make up for lost time, I'll re-use the technique last seen in Bitcoin in the News : 2019-04 More++, where I focused on stories from Forbes.com. For June, I counted 21 Forbes stories, many of them about the impressive rise in price for the month. Of those 21 stories, I selected 10 for this post.

• 2019-05-31: The Bitcoin Price Has Skyrocketed Over The Past Month For These 3 Reasons • '1. China and U.S. Trade War; 2. 2019 Consensus conference; 3. Brokerages Offering Bitcoin to Retail Customers in 2019'
• 2019-06-04: Bitcoin Plunged Below $8,000 -- Did This Cause The Sudden Price Drop? • 'someone dumped 25,000 bitcoin for $215 million and bought it back shortly after for $200 million'
• 2019-06-04: Bitcoin Rallied In May As Tweet Volume Hit 8-Month High
• 2019-06-06: Facebook's Radical Bitcoin-Beating Cryptocurrency Plans Revealed
• 2019-06-11: How Bitcoin Is Taxed
• 2019-06-13: IRS Agent Who Took Down 'Silk Road' Turns His Attention To Recreational Bitcoin Investors
• 2019-06-14: Bitcoin 'Supply Shock' Is Looming, Warns Venture Capitalist • 'heading for a "supply shock" thanks to next year's closely watched bitcoin halvening [halving]'
• 2019-06-17: Bitcoin Prices Have Tripled Since December -- What's Next?
• 2019-06-18: Bitcoin Is Up 145% YTD, What Does This Mean?
• 2019-06-26: Bitcoin Breaks Through $13,000 As Rally Continues

The first story dated 2019-06-04 sounds like market manipulation. The two stories dated 2019-06-17 and 2019-06-18 sound inconsistent until you realize they are measuring the price rise from a different base. The story dated 2019-06-06 mentions a 'Facebook project codenamed Libra'. For a more in-depth look, here are two stories from a stalwart of the monthly 'Price' posts:-

• 2019-06-13: Project Libra: What We Know About Facebook’s Forthcoming Cryptocurrency (cointelegraph.com)
• 2019-06-20: What Is Libra? Breaking Down Facebook’s New Digital Currency (ditto)

As for stories from other sources, there was nothing so compelling that I absolutely had to mention it.

Bitcoin in the News : 2019-06 Price

This month's price chart is more like a typical chart from 2017, like Bitcoin in the News : 2017-05 Price, than the charts in recent months, like last month's Bitcoin in the News : 2019-05 Price.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

The most impressive aspect of an impressive chart is the spike at:-

2019-06-26 16:00

In Cointelegraph's Analysis category, I didn't find any discussion of the spike, but I did find two macro discussions using list structures. Here's a summary of the list bullets:-

2019-06-23: 4 Big Reasons Bitcoin’s Price Will Probably Not Stop at $20K This Time (cointelegraph.com)
- Institutions, not retail, in the driver’s seat
- Network fundamentals better than ever
- Bitcoin reward halving still 11 months away
- The bigger macroeconomic picture

2019-06-26: 6 Surprising Takeaways From Bitcoin’s 2019 Bull Run (cointelegraph.com)
1. Bitcoin Already Quadrupled From its Bear Market 'Floor'
2. $11,000 Per Bitcoin is 'Fairly Valued'
3. Bitcoin and Avocados Soar As Dollar Crashes Under 10,000 Satoshis
4. The 'Kimchi Premium' Is At $13,000 ['South Korean traders pay more for bitcoin']
5. Bitcoin's Hash Rate Is Stronger And More Secure Than Ever
6. Will Bitcoin Continue to Surprise the Market?

Cointelegraph's Price Analysis tag had a closer look at the days before and after the spike:-

2019-06-22: Price Analysis 22/06: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, EOS, BNB, BSV, XLM, ADA (cointelegraph.com, also following links) • 'BTC/USD : The up-move of the past couple of days is reminiscent of the rally during the previous bull market. Bitcoin (BTC) has covered the distance from $10,000 to $11,000 within a day.'

2019-06-24: Price Analysis 24/06: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, [etc.] • 'BTC/USD : Bitcoin (BTC) has been holding near $11,000 for the past two days, which is a positive sign. This shows that the bulls expect the rally to continue, hence, they are not booking profits in a hurry.'

2019-06-26: Price Analysis 26/06: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, [etc.] • 'Bitcoin (BTC) has continued with its stellar run as no resistance level is being able to hold it back. It easily covered a distance from $10,000 to $13,000 within five days. [...] BTC/USD : Contrary to our assumption, bitcoin easily cleared the $12,000 and $13,000 overhead resistance levels on the same day. Such strong buying near critical resistance levels suggests huge demand.'

2019-06-28: Price Analysis 28/06: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, [etc.] • 'When an asset class jumps 275% within a span of six months, corrections are bound to happen. [...] Bitcoin reversed direction from $13,973.50 on June 26 and plunged to a low of $10,530.70 on June 27. That is a 24.63% fall within a day. The reason for such a sharp fall is that a vertical rally does not form any support levels en route. Hence, when the price starts falling, buyers do not step in until they spot a level that can act as a support.'

Will that spike prove to be another blip on bitcoin's upward march -or- the high point for 2019?

Bitcoin in the News : 2019-05 More++

After documenting last month's price evolution in last week's post Bitcoin in the News : 2019-05 Price, what other news is worth reporting? I ignored all the hand-waving about the continued price recovery (which was nevertheless welcome news), the usual warnings from the gloom-and-doomers (Warren Buffett and Nouriel Roubini both weighed in), and the scams (I counted three). One other story stood out : the Facebook story. In the past year and a half, I've mentioned Mark Zuckerberg's company a number of times. It turns out that those mentions, taken together, make a bigger story.

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-01 More++ • If you were a Facebook user in 2017, you probably noticed the many ICO ads that popped up everywhere, like weeds. That ended at the beginning of 2018.

2018-01-30: Facebook bans all ads for Bitcoin, ICOs, and other cryptocurrency (theverge.com) • 'Facebook is banning all advertisements for cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin and initial coin offerings, as part of an “intentionally broad” policy against deceptive marketers.'

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-03 Price • Facebook wasn't the only company to ban ICO ads.

Cointelegraph's Bitcoin Price Analysis (BPA) • 2018-03-15: Bitcoin++ Price Analysis, March 14: 'Google has followed Facebook in banning cryptocurrency-related advertising. While this is definitely not good news for ICO campaigns that rely heavily on marketing, this is unlikely to hurt the prospects of the coins backed by strong technical fundamentals.

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-04 More++ • Did Facebook have a secondary motive in the ban?

2018-04-24: Let’s destroy Bitcoin (technologyreview.com; MIT) • 'Three ways Bitcoin could be brought down, co-opted, or made irrelevant.' [...] 'Option two: Facebook sneak attack' ['If Facebook could persuade a large enough fraction of Bitcoin users and miners to run its own proprietary version of the Bitcoin software, the company would thereafter control the rules.']

Bitcoin in the News : 2018-12 Price • When did 'Its Own Stablecoin' become public knowledge? How could I have overlooked, even mocked, its importance?

Cointelegraph's Analysis category made no attempt to explain any of those three trends, focusing instead on stories like 'From Blanket Ban to Its Own Stablecoin: How Facebook’s Relationship With Crypto Changed Over 2018', which was the last article in the category for the year 2018.

Bitcoin in the News : 2019-03 More++ • The rumors became official a few months later.

After price, the most frequent bitcoin story in March concerned Facebook. What was that about? • Nytimes.com: 'Facebook and Telegram Are Hoping to Succeed Where Bitcoin Failed ' & Forbes.com: 'Blow To Bitcoin As Mark Zuckerberg Warns Facebook Payments Are Coming'

End-May the story was official. My Google News feed flagged two stories from Forbes:-

• 2019-05-24: Facebook And WhatsApp Break Cover With Bitcoin Rival Plans (forbes.com) • 'Facebook, the social networking giant which owns the popular WhatsApp messaging app and image-based Instagram, is gearing up to launch a rival to bitcoin as soon as next year as it accelerates plans to diversify its revenue away from advertising. The bitcoin-inspired cryptocurrency, reportedly dubbed GlobalCoin, is set to be rolled out for testing by the end of 2018 [2019?], with plans to launch it in 2020 in up to a dozen countries around the world -- potentially sending shockwaves throughout the burgeoning bitcoin and cryptocurrency sector.'
  
  
• 2019-05-27: Facebook's Upcoming 'Cryptocurrency' Has Nothing To Do With Bitcoin (forbes.com) • 'Rumors that Facebook will eventually issue their own cryptocurrency have been swirling for awhile now, but it’s likely that this product will be a "cryptocurrency" in name only and not have anything to do with the utility offered by bitcoin.

The two Forbes stories are by two different writers. Which is it: 'a rival to bitcoin', or '[nothing] to do with the utility offered by bitcoin'? It's probably some third option that is anybody's guess. What is Facebook’s GlobalCoin? (investopedia.com):-

Social media giant Facebook Inc. (FB) may become a formidable player in the rapidly growing markets for digital payments and cryptocurrencies when it enters both arenas early next year. Given its massive estimated base of about 2.375 billion monthly active users (MAU) in virtually every nation worldwide, Facebook could immediately become a major competitor to banks and payments processors such as Mastercard Inc. (MA), Visa Inc. (V), and PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL).

My guess is that MA, V, and PYPL have much more to lose from GlobalCoin than bitcoin does.

Bitcoin in the News : 2019-05 Price

For the fourth straight month -- the third was Bitcoin in the News : 2019-04 Price -- I can use the same observation:-

'The individual patterns are all similar: the market is in a state of equilibrium, then something happens -- always accompanied by significant volume -- to move it quickly to another state of equilibrium. The cycle repeats.'

Nevertheless, it goes without saying that every new month differs from previous months. The most striking aspect of the May chart was the steady rise from 5000 to 7000 (in round numbers) during the first third of the month.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index

The subsequent jumps/drops in the 'state of equilibrium' occurred at the following (approximate) times, always confirmed by a surge in volume:-

2019-05-13 0800 +
2019-05-17 0800 -
2019-05-18 2000 +
2019-05-26 1200 +

There was another drop near the end of the month, although its price movement was only about half of the movements I've listed. Cointelegraph's Analysis category served three stories that I found relevant. The first story concerned a small jump early in the month, accompanied by an outsized volume:-.

• 2019-05-04: Bitcoin Surges Past $5,700 in Hours: Experts Explain Factors of Overnight Rally • 'Over several hours on May 3, the price of bitcoin spiked from around $5,300 to over $5,700 in major markets, allowing the crypto market to gain more than $7 billion in a single day. [...] Crypto Rand, a widely recognized cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst, said that the upside movement of bitcoin and the rest of the market may have been simply technical.'

'Crypto Rand' - is that a real name? 'Simply technical' - is that a real reason? My interest in the second story isn't about its title; it's about its trigger:-

• 2019-05-26: Will Bitcoin’s Volatility This Month Hinder the Future of an ETF? • 'On May 17, bitcoin’s (BTC) price experienced a "flash crash," dropping to $6,400 within minutes, which was triggered by a 5,000 BTC sell-off — equivalent to around $35 million at the time.'

A 'flash crash' is caused by automated trading. Note that the drop was deeper than shown in the monthly chart above, because a partial recovery happened almost immediately. The third story is an eye-opener:-

• 2019-05-31: Bitwise Calls Out to SEC: 95% of Bitcoin Trade Volume Is Fake, Real Market Is Organized • 'Bitwise has recently prepared a 104-page white paper. In it, the fund manager argued that the bitcoin market still has inconsistencies regarding trading data, but the legitimate part of the market has a "remarkable efficiency." • Approximately 95% of reported BTC trading volume is fake • Bitwise analyzed trading data of some 83 exchanges. Researchers said they looked at the trade size histograms, volume spike alignment and spread patterns of these exchanges. They concluded that there are only 10 exchanges with 100% real trading volumes, and these 10 exchanges collectively account for 5% of the reported trading volume. • The remaining 5% makes up for a highly regulated and efficient market.

There was more about an ETF, which isn't relevant to understanding sudden price movements. It's the 95%:5% split that is relevant. Automated trading on suspicious data -- isn't that a dangerous combination? Given that bitcoin is traded all over the world, which means that it can escape any sort of regulation, and given that pots of money always attract fraudsters who are only interested in the size of their own bank accounts, why would anyone trust bitcoin? Maybe because it's a fascinating idea.